Preliminary Program: Thursday (9/17)
Last updated: 8/21/98 3:16:57 PM
|
Invited Lecture |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday, September 17, 8:00-9:00 AM (Ballroom D&E) |
TITLE: |
Critical Infrastructure Protection |
Speaker |
David A. Jones, Commissioner, President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.1.1 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 9:00AM - 10:30AM (Alvin) |
TITLE: |
External Events in Nuclear Plant PSA |
CHAIR: |
A. Afzali, Diablo Canyon NPP, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Kang |
CANDU Design Characteristics in View of External Events Induced Risk |
Jacobsson |
The Importance of Using Both Probabilistic Models and Physical Deterministic Models in Modeling External Events for a Level 1 PSA |
Angner |
Improved Methods for Probabilistic Safety Analysis of "Area and External Events" |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.1.3 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 9:00AM - 10:30AM (Carnegie) |
TITLE: |
Structural Reliability - Pipes |
CHAIR: |
K. Fleming, ERIN, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Fournier |
Probabilistic design of structures: example of a pressure vessel design |
Johnson |
Heavy Water Research Reactor Pipe Leak and Rupture Frequency Assessment |
Simonen |
Uncertainty Analysis of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Calculations of Piping Failure Probabilities |
Christman |
Probabilistic Assessment of the Puncture of Cylindrical Containers |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.1.4 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 9:00AM - 10:30AM (Juilliard) |
TITLE: |
Dynamic Systems Risk and Reliability - Methods 1 |
CHAIR: |
J. Devooght, U. Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Labeau |
DDET and Monte Carlo Simulation to Solve Some Dynamic Reliability Problems |
Ngom |
Interest and Implementation of the Fictitious States Method in Markovian Modeling |
Ngom |
Taking into Account of Dependency Relations in the Monte-Carlo's Simulation of Non-Coherent Fault Trees |
Bigot |
Graph and Algebra of Words: Application to Reliability |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.1.5 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 9:00AM - 10:30AM (Uris) |
TITLE: |
Human and Organizational Factors in Risk Assessment |
CHAIR: |
N. Pidgeon, U. of Wales, UK |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Oh |
The IRISK Project: Development of an Integrated Technical and Management Risk Control and Monitoring Methodology for Managing and Quantifying On-Site and Off-Site Risks |
Papazoglou |
System Performance Modeling for Quantification of Organizational Factors in Chemical Installations |
Bellamy |
The Interface between the Technical and the Management Model for use in Quantified Risk Analysis |
Hale |
An Audit Method for the Modification of Technical Risk Assessment with Management Weighting Factors |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.1.6 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 9:00AM - 10:30AM (Shubert) |
TITLE: |
Expert Judgment Methods and Applications 3 |
CHAIR: |
U. Pulkkinen, VTT Automation, Finland |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Thompson |
Learning from the Past: Revisiting Expert Judgments Related to the Lifesaving Potential of Airbags |
Aspinall |
Expert Judgement and the Montserrat Volcano Eruption |
Cojazzi |
KEEJAM Expert Judgment Methodology: Application to the Prediction of the Results of a Fuel Coolant Interaction Experiment |
Pyy |
A Case Study on Application of Expert Judgment Methodology to HRA of NPP Shutdown Conditions |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.1.7 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 9:00AM - 10:30AM (Regency) |
TITLE: |
Reliability Data and Analysis |
CHAIR: |
M. Shooman, Polytechnic University, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Duda |
The Reliability Data Collecting System A Compromise Between Demands of Deterministic and Stochastic Approaches |
Stutzke |
A Generic Component Reliability Database for Use in Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Soviet Designed VVER and RBMK Nuclear Power Plants |
Shooman |
The Significance of Zero Failures and its Effect Risk on Decision Making |
Righini |
A Database for Reliability Centered Maintenance Management |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.1.8 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 9:00AM - 10:30AM (Majestic) |
TITLE: |
Risk Communication and the Media |
CHAIR: |
D. Okrent, UCLA, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Palfreman |
"The Risk Communication Food Chain" |
Butterworth |
Communicating Health Risks Based on Extrapolation Beyond the Bounds of Observation |
Nitschke |
The Seven Deadly Environmental Risk Communication Sins |
Johnson |
The Mass Media and Concerns about Risk: Demon, Angel, or Merely Befuddledly Human? |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.2.1 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Alvin) |
TITLE: |
Risk-Informed Decision Making |
CHAIR: |
R. Grantom, Houston Lighting & Power Co., USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Hewkin |
Risk Informed Decision Making - Use of a Simplistic Risk Estimation Procedure |
Parry |
Uncertainty in PRA and its Implications for Use in Risk-Informed Decision-Making |
Brannigan |
Risk Based Regulation Under Intentional Uncertainty |
Fischer |
A New Paradigm to Establish the Safety Basis for Nuclear Explosive Operations |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.2.2 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Broadway) |
TITLE: |
Phenomenological Uncertainties |
CHAIR: |
N. Siu, US NRC, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Benjamin |
Dynamic Modeling of Physical Phenomena for PRAs Using Neural Networks |
Sehgal |
Treatment of Phenomenological Uncertainties in a LWR Severe Accident Risk Analysis Computer Code |
Ekberg |
Uncertainties in Solubility Calculations Aimed at a Repository for Spent Nuclear Fuel |
Dhir |
On the Effect of Accident Conditions on the Likelihood that Molten Core Debris Will Reach the Reactor Vessel Lower Head of a PWR |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.2.3 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Carnegie) |
TITLE: |
Structural Reliability - Navigation Structures |
CHAIR: |
C.Fournier, Ligeron, France |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Patev |
Time-Dependent Reliability and Hazard Function Development for Navigation Structures |
Schaaf |
Ohio River Main Stem Systems Study Lock and Dam Risk and Reliability |
Merritt |
Probabilistic Evaluation of Lock Wall Gravity Structures for the Ohio River Mainstem Systems Study |
Kathir |
Probabilistic Evaluation of Miter Gates for the Ohio River Mainstem System Study |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.2.4 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Juilliard) |
TITLE: |
Dynamic Systems Risk and Reliability - Methods 2 |
CHAIR: |
V.N. Dang, Paul Scherrer Inst., Switzerland |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Devooght |
Uncertainty Analysis in Dynamic Reliability |
Labeau |
Monte Carlo Treatment of Uncertainties in Dynamic Reliability |
Krymsky |
Risk-Based Methodology for Analysis of Large-Scale Stochastic Dynamic Systems with Parametric Uncertainty |
Swaminathan |
Capturing Dynamic Scenarios using the Event Sequence Diagram Framework |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.2.5 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Uris) |
TITLE: |
Modeling the Impact of Organizational Factors on Risk 1 |
CHAIR: |
B. Kaufer, OECD/NEA, France |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Gertman |
Management and Organizational Factors Research: The Socio-Organizational Contribution to Risk Assessment and the Technical Evaluation of Systems (SOCRATES) |
Blackman |
Integrating Safety Culture |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.2.6 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Shubert) |
TITLE: |
PANEL - Use of Technical Expert Panels: Methodology and Applications |
CHAIR: |
R. Budnitz, Future Resources Associates, USA |
Panelists: | |
Robert J. Budnitz (Future Resources Associates) | |
George Apostolakis (MIT) | |
Kevin J. Coppersmith (Geomatrix) | |
C. Allin Cornell (Stanford U.) |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.2.7 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Regency) |
TITLE: |
Using Precursor Results to Estimate Core Damage Frequency |
CHAIR: |
L. Abramson, US NRC, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Bier |
Bayesian Models for Precursor Analysis |
Hsu |
Evaluation of Stochastic Variation of ASP Database Through Simulation |
Kirchsteiger |
Quantitative Assessment of the Significance of Recurrent Patterns Identified in Accident Descriptions |
Martz |
Core Damage Frequency Estimation Using Accident Sequence Precursor Data: 1990-1993 |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.2.8 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Majestic) |
TITLE: |
Equity, Discounting, and Policies for Long Term Risks |
CHAIR: |
D. Okrent, UCLA, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Shrader-Frechette |
Risk, Ethics, and Discounting Future Generations |
Belzer |
Star Trek Economics: Discounting with Anomalies in the Time-Space Continuum |
Cropper |
New Directions in Mortality Risk Valuation and Stated Preference Methods: Preliminary Results |
Okrent |
Panel |
Discussion |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.3.1 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Alvin) |
TITLE: |
Risk and Safety Based Design - Applications |
CHAIR: |
M.W. Golay, MIT, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Paulos |
PRA Techniques Used During the Design of the X-33 Technology Demonstrator |
Powell |
U.S. Navy Ship Design: Lessons-Learned and Risk Management |
Czajgucki |
Modeling of Reliabiability Relations in the Process of Designing Complex Technical Systems with the Required Reliability |
Bedford |
Multi-Attribute Decision-Making in Design Choice |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.3.2 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Broadway) |
TITLE: |
Nuclear Plant Accidents - Modeling and Applications |
CHAIR: |
J. Alter, IAEA, Austria |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Bradley |
Containment Performance Assessment (Level 2 PSA) for the Dukovany Nuclear Plant |
LaChance |
Perspectives Regarding RCP Seal LOCA Modeling in the IPEs |
Appelgren |
The Impact on Safety of the Integrity of the Vessel Internals in Three Swedish Boiling Water Reactors of Identical Design |
Sancaktar |
Reactor Coolant Pump Seal LOCA Models in PSA Studies |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.3.3 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Carnegie) |
TITLE: |
Uncertainty Analysis - Applications 1 |
CHAIR: |
J. Helton, SNL, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Wilczynski |
Uncertainty Analysis of a Vessel's Metacentric Height |
Helton |
Uncertainty Analysis in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant |
Frank |
Assessment of the Cassini Mission Nuclear Risk with Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties |
Frank |
Reentry Safety: Assessing Uncertainty |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.3.4 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Juilliard) |
TITLE: |
Dynamic Systems Risk and Reliability - Applications 1 |
CHAIR: |
S-H. Shen, Virginia Power, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Maggio |
A Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Model Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine |
Arien |
An Application of the Probabilistic Dynamics: Modeling of a Hydropneumatic Pressurising System |
Chang |
Dynamic PRA Using ADS with RELAP5 Code as Its Thermal Hydraulic Module |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.3.5 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Uris) |
TITLE: |
Modeling the Impact of Organizational Factors on Risk 2 |
CHAIR: |
B. Hallbert, INEEL, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Meshkati |
Potential Safety and Environmental Risks of Electric Deregulation in the United States: The Case of Nuclear Power Plants |
Kozuh |
Latent Weaknesses in Complex Systems Identification and Quantification |
Lippold |
Risk Assessment through Document Assessment |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.3.6 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Shubert) |
TITLE: |
Economic Consequence Assessment |
CHAIR: |
D. Harvey, WS Atkins, UK |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Gallego |
Probabilistic Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Consequences of Nuclear Accidents. Models and Case Studies |
Rodgers |
Property Damage Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants |
Rosen |
Using Probabilistic Safety Analysis to Adjust Nuclear Property Insurance Levels - A Case Study In Unresolved Risk Communication Issues |
Kroger |
Multicriteria Optimisation of Transportation of Dangerous Goods in a Free Market Environment |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.3.7 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Regency) |
TITLE: |
Accident Evaluation and Management |
CHAIR: |
D. Johnson, PLG, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Pong |
The Practical Implications of Using Quantitative Importance Measures to Guide Risk Based Decision Making Processes |
Kim |
A Phased Approach to Severe Accident Management at Korean Nuclear Power Plants |
Pratt |
Simplified Approach for Estimating Large Early Release Frequency |
Löffler |
Probabilistic and Deterministic Analysis of Severe Accidents for a Boiling Water Reactor |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.3.8 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Majestic) |
TITLE: |
Interdisciplinary Approaches and Risk Perception |
CHAIR: |
D. Okrent, UCLA, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Zimmerman |
Interdisciplinary Approaches to Safety and Risk in Urban Infrastructure Systems |
Langford |
Simultaneous Analysis of Individual and Aggregate Responses in Psychometric Data using Multilevel Modeling |
Haimes |
Risk Management of Rare and Extreme Events |
von Meier |
Ambiguity in Framing Risk: Contrasting Narratives on Nuclear Materials |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.4.1 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Alvin) |
TITLE: |
Low Power and Shutdown PSA of Nuclear Plants |
CHAIR: |
L.Chu, BNL, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Mihara |
Level-1 PSA during Shutdown for an LMFBR Plant |
Müller-Ecker |
Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Non-Full-Power States of NPPs in Germany |
Faig |
Development and Results of Low Power & Shutdown Operation PSA at Asco NPP |
Jankala |
PSA for Shutdown Modes of Loviisa NPP |
Kollasko |
The European Pressurized Water Reactor: PSA Applied to the Shutdown States |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.4.2 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Broadway) |
TITLE: |
Test, Maintenance, and Reliability Optimization |
CHAIR: |
R. Youngblood, Scientech, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Coit |
Reliability Optimization Considering User Risk and Reliability Estimation Uncertainty |
Hartley |
Risk-Based Testing of Pumps |
Yang |
Development of Surveillance Test Interval and Allowed Outage Time Assessment Methodology with Configuration Control |
Klimaszewski |
Maintenance Information Used in Controlling of Maintenance Strategy of Aviation Technique |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.4.3 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Carnegie) |
TITLE: |
Uncertainty Analysis - Applications 2 |
CHAIR: |
A.R. Hale, T.U. Delft, The Netherlands |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Zio |
Differential and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis of the Reliability of a Protection System |
Bourdon |
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the SFD PHEBUS B9+ Test using SUNSET-ICARE2 Codes |
Discussion |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.4.4 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Juilliard) |
TITLE: |
Dynamic Systems Risk and Reliability - Applications 2 |
CHAIR: |
P.E. Labeau, U. Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Andersson |
Integrated Sequence Analysis - Experiences from a Nordic Study and Recommendations for Methodological Development |
Shukri |
A Dynamic PRA Model, ADS-IDA: Its Advantages and Possible Applications |
TBD |
Panel |
Discussion |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.4.5 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Uris) |
TITLE: |
Modeling the Impact of Organizational Factors on Risk 3 |
CHAIR: |
N. Meshkati, U. of Southern California, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Paté-Cornell |
Priorities in Risk Management: Human and Organizational Factors as External Events and a Maritime Illustration |
Hee |
Safety Management Assessment System (SMAS) |
Pidgeon |
Systems, Organizational Learning, and Man-Made Disasters |
Mersiol |
Human Dependability in Complex System: An Issue of Task Consistency and Task Allocation |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.4.6 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Shubert) |
TITLE: |
Modeling the Impact of External Events and Natural Phenomena |
CHAIR: |
D. Orvis, Morrison Knudsen, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Muramatsu |
Development of Screening Method for Volcanic Acitvity |
Brandyberry |
Modeling Seismically Initiated Accidents at an Army Chemical Weapons Stockpile Storage Site |
Deshotels |
Choosing the Design Basis Temperature for a Hazardous Facility |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.4.7 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Regency) |
TITLE: |
Nuclear Plant Safety Insights |
CHAIR: |
M.G. Stamatelatos, Scientech, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Werner |
Generic Safety Function Unavailabilities versus Configuration Characteristics for Support of Risk Informed Decision Making |
Husarcek |
Analyses of Selected Severe Accidents for the Mochovce Nuclear Power Plant |
Sehgal |
Further Investigations of Risk-Dominating Phenomena for Swedish BWR Plants |
Blanchard |
Use of Top Event Prevention Analysis to Select a Safety-Significant Subset of Air-Operated Valves for Testing |
SESSION NUMBER: |
4.4.8 |
TIME / ROOM: |
Thursday (9/17) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Majestic) |
TITLE: |
Communicating Risk to the Public |
CHAIR: |
V.M. Bier, U. of Wisconsin-Madison, USA |
PRESENTER |
Title/Authors |
Glicken |
The Social Dimensions of Risk-Based Approaches to Technology Improvement |
Hechanova |
A Stakeholder-Based Risk Characterization of Operating Radioactive Waste Management Sites at the Nevada Test Site |
Gratton |
The Perceived Risk of Repository Criticality and Its Potential Impact on the Yucca Mountain Project |
Hechanova |
A Recommendation for Dose-Response Predictions that Address Stakeholder Concerns |
Preliminary program last updated: 8/21/98 3:16:57 PM