PLENARY SESSION

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 9:00AM - 10:30AM (Ball Room D&E)

CHAIR:

A. Thadani (US NRC)

SESSION NUMBER:

3.2.1

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Alvin)

TITLE:

Uncertainty Analysis - Techniques and Applications 3

CHAIR:

M.V. Frank, Safety Factor Associates, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Feliciano Jacomino

Implementation of a Unified Methodology to Infer Parameter Distributions and Evaluate the Predictive Uncertainty of a Model Used to Simulate Sediment Transport and Water Quality in a Watershed
Vanusa Maria Feliciano Jacomino, David Edward Fields

Devictor

Assessment of the Uncertainty About the Pressure Drop Coefficient
Nicolas Devictor, Flavio DeMagistris, Laurent Martin

Kampas

Deconvolution of Variablility and Uncertainty in the Cassini Safety Analysis
Frank J. Kampas, Stephen Loughin

Garnier

Processing Parameters Variation Studies Using Efficient Monte-Carlo Rare Event Simulation
Robert Garnier, Daniel Perez, Pascal Reboh

SESSION NUMBER:

3.2.2

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Broadway)

TITLE:

Risk-Informed Design of Transportation Systems

CHAIR:

B. Martin, British Nuclear Fuels, United Kingdom

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Samavedam

Assessment of Buckling Risk in Continuous Welded Rail Tracks
Gopal Samavedam, Andrew Kish

Lupton

The Application of a Risk Based Safety Approach to the Preliminary Design of West Rail
Bob Lupton

Klimaszewski

Estimation of Probability of Failure to a Helicopter's Main Rotor Blade Under Combat Conditions
J. Borgon, A. Leski, M. Stukonis, J. Szymczak

SESSION NUMBER:

3.2.3

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Carnegie)

TITLE:

Risk Impacts from Plant and PSA Upgrades

CHAIR:

E. Hollo, VEIKI Inst. for Electric Power Research, Hungary

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Sorel

Benefits of Re-drafting and Updating the EDF 1300 MW Nuclear Power Plant PSA
Vincent Sorel, Gilles Feuillade, Corinne Bieder

Kovács

Level 1 PSA Results for Safety Upgrading of J.Bohunice V1 NPP
Z. Kovács, I. Pnacek

Versteeg

PSA & Backfitting of the Borssele Nuclear Power Plant
M.F. Versteeg, M. van der Borst

Balfanz

Risk Based Management, Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA), Total Safety Management - How Do They interact?
Hans-Peter Balfanz

SESSION NUMBER:

3.2.4

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Juilliard)

TITLE:

Probabilistic Methods Applied to Waste Management

CHAIR:

B. Sagar, Southwest Research Inst., USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Bennet

Determining the Appropriate Spatial Scale for Managing Environmental Risks
William E. Kastenberg, Deborah H. Bennett, Thomas E. McKone

Lemos

Kd Determination Using Fuzzy Sets Theory
Francisco Luiz de Lemos, Terry Sullivan

Maxwell

Management in the Face of the Unknown Known: On the Use of Groundwater Driven Health Risk Assessment in Contaminated Waste Site Management
William E. Kastenberg, Susan D. Pelmulder, Reed M. Maxwell, Andrew F.B. Tompson

Smidts

Risk Assessment of Radioactive Waste Repositories: A Biased Monte Carlo Simulation for the Transport of Radionuclide Chains
O.F. Smidts, J. Devooght

SESSION NUMBER:

3.2.5

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Uris)

TITLE:

ROUNDTABLE - Operator Reliability and Safety Assessment in Highly Automated Environments: Task Analysis Methods, Models and Data

SESSION NUMBER:

3.2.6

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Shubert)

TITLE:

Risk Management in Aviation

CHAIR:

S. Bayley, SAIC, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Luxhoj

Risk-Based Decisionmaking for Aviation Safety Using Bayesian Belief Networks
James T. Luxhoj

Smith

Risks to Third Parties in the Vicinity of Airports
E.J. Smith

Ale

The Management of Third Party Risk Around a Major Airport
B. J. M. Ale

Piers

Models for the Assessment of Third Party Risk Due to Aircraft Accidents in the Vicinity of Airports
Michael A. Piers

SESSION NUMBER:

3.2.7

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Regency)

TITLE:

ROUNDTABLE - Risk-Based Analysis of Operational Events

SESSION NUMBER:

3.2.8

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Majestic)

TITLE:

On the Interaction of Social Science and Technology in Risk Assessment

CHAIR:

D. Okrent, UCLA, USA
N. Pidgeon, U. of Wales, UK

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Okrent

On the Interaction of Social Science and Technology in Risk Management
David Okrent

Charnley

A Systematic, Comprehensive Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management
Gail Charnley

North

Informing the People's Discretion About Environmental Risks: Can This Challenge Be Met?
D. Warner North

Pidgeon

Stakeholders, Decisions and Risk
Nick Pidgeon

SESSION NUMBER:

3.3.1

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Alvin)

TITLE:

Risk and Safety Based Design - Methodology

CHAIR:

N. Siu, US NRC, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Desille

Conception Optimization Based on the Definition of Availability Allocations Taken into Account Costs Constraints
Fabienne Meunier, Hervé Desille, Antoine Rauzy, Philippe Thomas

Cooper

Structured Design and Assessment of Safety Systems Based on Principles
Stanley D. Spray, J. Arlin Cooper

Martin

The Influence of Probabilistic Safety Assessment on Design- Experience from the BNFL Sellafield MOX Plant
B. R. Martin, A.J. Tilstone

Cornford

Managing Risk as a Resource Using the Defect Detection and Prevention Process
Steven L. Cornford

SESSION NUMBER:

3.3.2

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Broadway)

TITLE:

Risk Comparisons in Decision Making

CHAIR:

R. Hall, BNL, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Knochenhauer

The Problem of Comparability - Making Judgements Based on PSA Results
Michael Knochenhauer

Chhibber

A Perspective on Risk in the Chemical Process and Nuclear Fuel Enrichment Industries
Sumeet Chhibber, Roger M. Blond

Hirschberg

Health and Environmental Risk Assessment of Energy Systems in Support of Decision-Making
S. Hirschberg, R. Dones

Wells

Incorporating Institutional Issues in Environmental Decision Making
William E. Kastenberg, Louise L. Wells

SESSION NUMBER:

3.3.3

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Carnegie)

TITLE:

Licensing and Regulatory Applications of PSA

CHAIR:

G. Parry, US NRC, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Julin

Regulatory Applications of PSA in Finland
Lasse Reiman, Reino Virolainen

Schubert

The Use of PSA Methods for Licensing and Regulatory Processes at HEW
H. Ohlmeyer, B. Schubert

Sandve

On Risk Based Regulation
Kjell Sandve, Terje Aven

De Gelder

Insights and Lessons from PSA for Nuclear Power Plants: Experience of the Belgian Regulatory Body
P. De Gelder, D. Gryffroy

SESSION NUMBER:

3.3.4

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Juilliard)

TITLE:

Decision Analysis in Waste Management Applications

CHAIR:

N. Eisenberg, US NRC, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Boyd

Development of a Comprehensive Risk Management Program for the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program
G.J. Boyd, M.D. Brandyberry

Okrent

On the Need for Policy Regarding Risks Arising Hundreds and Thousands of Years in the Future from Hazardous Waste Disposal Sites and Municipal Landfills
David Okrent, Richard Z. Shu

Gross

Application of a Systems-Level Model in Support of Performance-Based Management on the WIPP Project
Michael B. Gross, Roger A. Nelson, Jim Mewhinney, George Basabilvazo

Eisenberg

Importance Measures for Nuclear Waste Repositories
Norman A. Eisenberg, Budhi Sagar

SESSION NUMBER:

3.3.5

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Uris)

TITLE:

ROUNDTABLE - New Generation HRA Techniques

CHAIR:

A. Ramey-Smith, US NRC, USA

SESSION NUMBER:

3.3.6

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Shubert)

TITLE:

Expert Judgment Methods and Applications 1

CHAIR:

G. Cojazzi, EC, JRC, Italy

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Cojazzi

The Context of the Phase I of the Benchmark Exercise on Expert Judgement Techniques in Level 2 PSA: The JRC FARO L-24 Experiment
G. Cojazzi, L. Pinola, U. Pulkkinen

Hofer

Application of a Formal Expert Judgement Methodology to Forecast Results of a Fuel-Coolant Interaction Experiment
Eduard Hofer

Coe

The NNC Expert Judgment Methodology and Its Use in the Prediction of Some Results of the FARO L-24 Test
I. M. Coe

Pulkkinen

A Formal Expert Judgement Methodology and its Application to the Prediction of the Results of a Fuel Coolant Interaction Experiment
Urho Pulkkinen, Reino Virolainen

SESSION NUMBER:

3.3.7

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Regency)

TITLE:

Insights from Chemical and Process PSAs

CHAIR:

V. Mubayi, BNL, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Bayley

Assessment of Mitigation Features in a Chemical Agent Disposal Facility Using MELCOR
S.E. Bayley

Dumai

An Alternative Method for Safety Demonstration of Pressure Cartridges (EED)
Aric Dumai, Dov Tzidony, Yair Baruchi

Piccinini

Integrated Dynamic Decision Analysis of a Gas Drying Plant: Phenomenological Analysis
N. Piccinini, L. Scataglini, F. De Vecchi

Brereton

Risk Ranking Methodology for Chemical Release Events
S. Brereton, T. Altenbach

SESSION NUMBER:

3.3.8

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Majestic)

TITLE:

Risk Perception and Public Participation

CHAIR:

D. Okrent, UCLA, USA
R. Zimmerman, New York U., USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Walker

Public Perceptions of Risk Associated With Major Technological Hazards: A Contextual View
Peter Simmons, Gordon Walker, Alan Irwin, Brian Wynne

Langford

The Role of Trust and Accountability in Public Perceptions of Risk
Ian H. Langford, Rosemary J. Day, Stavros Georgiou, Ian J. Bateman, R. Kerry Turner, Tim O'Riordan

Goble

Risk-Informed Public Partipation
Robert L. Goble

Apostolakis

On Stakeholder Involvement in Environmental Restoration
George Apostolakis, Evaristo Bonano

SESSION NUMBER:

3.4.1

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Alvin)

TITLE:

Risk Management in Environment, Safety and Health

CHAIR:

E.J. Bonano, Beta Corp. International, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Morosan

Multi-Attribute Analysis of Alternatives for Hanford Tanks Remediation System
Florinel Morosan, Mujid S. Kazimi

Barnett

A Template Approach to Meeting DOE and EPA Requirements for Emergency Management Hazards Assessment Documents
Robert B. Barnett

Pelmuder

Risk-Informed Decision Making for Remedial Action
Susan D. Pelmulder, William E. Kastenberg

Mubayi

Prioritization of Environmental, Safety, and Health Issues at Brookhaven National Laboratory
V. Mubayi, J. Lehner, C. Conrad, W.T. Pratt, R.A. Bari, C.C. Lin

SESSION NUMBER:

3.4.2

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Broadway)

TITLE:

Analysis and Frequency of Aircraft Crashes

CHAIR:

P. Amico, SAIC, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Haley

Progression and Advancement of Aircraft Crash Hazard Analysis Models
Timothy A. Haley, Roy Karimi, Peter G. Prassinos, Kamiar Jamali

Glaser

Calculation of the Estimated Probability of an Aircraft Crash into a Structure
Ronald E. Glaser

Kimura

Aircraft Crash Hit Analysis of the Decontamination and Waste Treatment Facility (DWTF) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)
Chris Y. Kimura, Gregg Brumburgh

Haley

Application of Aircraft Crash Hazard Assessment Methods to Various Facilities in the Nuclear Industry
Kamiar Jamali, Timothy A. Haley, Paul J. Amico, Roy Karimi

Bayley

Aircraft Data Collection and Risk Evaluation for US Army Facilities
S.E. Bayley

SESSION NUMBER:

3.4.3

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Carnegie)

TITLE:

Risk Considerations in Land Use Planning

CHAIR:

M. Christou, EC, JRC, Italy

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Pauldrach

Land Use Planning and Risk Consideration - Some Swedish Lessons
Hartmut Pauldrach

Christou

Legislative Framework and Guidance Procedures for Land-Use Planning in the European Union
Michalis Christou, Sam Porter

Papazoglou

Expansion of an Oil Refinery and Land Use Planning
Ioannis A. Papazoglou, Zoe S. Nivolianitou, Gerasimos S. Bonanos

Spadoni

From ARIPAR Project a Tool to Support Land-Use Planning Activities
G. Spadoni, P. Leonelli, D. Egidi

SESSION NUMBER:

3.4.4

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Juilliard)

TITLE:

Dynamic Systems Diagnostics

CHAIR:

T. Aldemir, Ohio State U., USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Füssel

Model-Based Fault Detection and Diagnosis Part A: Methods
Rolf Isermann, Dominik Füssel

Nelles

Model-Based Fault Detection and Diagnosis Part B: Applications
Rolf Isermann, Dominik Füssel, Oliver Nelles, Peter Balle

Esmaili

A Much Faster Than Real Time Approach to Accident Diagnostics, Analysis, and Management (ADAM)
H. Esmaili, S. Orandi, R. Vijaykumar, E.G. Cazzoli, M. Khatib-Rahbar, O. Zuchuat, U. Schmocker

Aldemir

A Model-Based Probabilistic Approach to Dynamic System Diagnostics
Tunc Aldemir, Laurian Dinca

Samanta

Diagnostic Systems of Programmable Electronic Systems
M.J.M. Houtermans, D.M. Karydas, A.C. Brombacher

SESSION NUMBER:

3.4.5

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Uris)

TITLE:

Human Performance Data in Safety Analysis, Management, and Regulation

CHAIR:

C. Bieder, EDF, France

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Muramatsu

Consideration of the Effect of Human Error in a Seismic PSA
Masao Yokobayashi, Tetsukuni Oikawa, Ken Muramatsu

Furuta

Heuristics for Intention Inferencing in Plant Operation
K. Furuta, T. Sakai, S. Kondo

Milici

A Framework for the Identification of Unsafe Actions and Error Forcing Contexts in a Team Setting Using the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology
A. Milici, R.J. Mulvihill

Ramey-Smith

Thoughts on Using Human Reliability Insights as a Focus for Regulatory Practices
Ann Ramey-Smith, John Wreathall

SESSION NUMBER:

3.4.6

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Shubert)

TITLE:

Expert Judgment Methods and Applications 2

CHAIR:

K. Thompson, Harvard U., USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Cooke

Joint EC/USNRC Project: Results of Expert Judgement Assessments for the Late Health Effects Models
Louis Goossens, Colin Muirhead, Mark Little, Roger Cooke, Fred Harper, Bernd Kraan

Cooper

Mathematical Relations for Incorporating Subjective Expertise into Safety Analyses
J. Arlin Cooper, Timothy J. Ross

Cooke

Evaluation of Weighting Schemes for Expert Judgment Studies
L.H.J. Goossens, R.M. Cooke, B.C.P. Kraan

Leon

Legal Admissibility vis-a-vis Scientific Acceptability of Expert Judgments in Environmental Management
Alberto A. Leon, Evaristo J. Bonano

SESSION NUMBER:

3.4.7

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Regency)

TITLE:

Transportation Systems Risk Insights

CHAIR:

B. Ale, National Inst. For Health and Environmen, The Netherlands

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Ferguson

Forecasting Standard View: A Maritime Industry Risk Analysis Tool; and the National Maritime Safety Incident Reporting System: A Maritime Industry Risk Reduction Tool
Scott J. Ferguson

Massé

New Requirements for the Building of Reliability in Civil Aviation
Jean-Remi Massé, Richard L. Horvath

Steininger

Risk and Cost Centered Management of DB's Railworks
Udo Steininger, Karl Götz, Helmuth Karff

Sandquist

Risk Assessment of High Altitude Free Flight Commercial Aircraft Operations
G.M. Sandquist, D.M. Slaughter, C.Y. Kimura, Dean L. Sanzo

SESSION NUMBER:

3.4.8

TIME / ROOM:

Wednesday (9/16) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Majestic)

TITLE:

Risk Perception and Risk Management

CHAIR:

D. Okrent, UCLA, USA
W. North, NorthWorks, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Sjöberg

Understanding the Process and Consequences of Risk Perception
Lennart Sjöberg

Belzer

Staking Out Risk Management
Richard B. Belzer

Paté-Cornell

Risk Comparison: Uncertainties and Ranking
Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

Johnson

What Researchers Think They Know About Risk Perception
Branden B. Johnson