TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 9:00AM - 10:30AM (Ballroom D&E)

Opening Welcome

Robert A. Bari, General Chairman

Keynote Address

John F. Ahearne, Director of the Sigma Xi Center

Introduction to the Technical Program

Ali Mosleh, Technical Program Chairman

SESSION NUMBER:

1.2.1

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Alvin)

TITLE:

Systems Modeling 1

CHAIR:

S. Kondo, U. of Tokyo, Japan
R. Youngblood, Scientech, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Christensen

Safety and Reliability of Large Wind Turbines
Palle Christensen, Martin Winther-Jensen

Szabó

Analysis of Adaptive Multi-State Logic in Fault-Tolerant Systems
Péter Gáspár, Géza Szabó

Boesmans

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Wind Turbine Farms
B. Boesmans

Matsuoka

An Application of the GO-FLOW Methodology - Safety Analysis of Fuel Cell Propulsion System for a 1,500 DWT Cargo Vessel-
Takeshi Matsuoka, Masayoshi Kondoh, Masayuki Terao

SESSION NUMBER:

1.2.2

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Broadway)

TITLE:

Computer and Electronic Systems Risk and Reliability

CHAIR:

S. Guarro, The Aerospace Corp., USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Camargo Jr.

Safety Problems in Computer Systems
João Batista Camargo Junior, Jorge Rady de Almeida Junior

Shooman

Connection Availability Analysis in Communication Networks
Andrew M. Shooman

Goble

Approaches and Obstacles to the Characterization of Risks from the Use of Digital Systems in Nuclear Power Plants
Robert L. Goble, Douglas Chapin

Górski

Safety Aspects Throughout a Lifecycle of Distributed Systems
Janusz Górski

SESSION NUMBER:

1.2.3

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Carnegie)

TITLE:

Manufacturing Reliability and Risk

CHAIR:

A. Christou, U. of Maryland, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Kafka

Reliability and Maintainability (R & M) - A Key Issue in Motorcar Industries
H. Adrian, P. Kafka

Christou

Probabilistic Yield and Statistical Issues in Manufacturing of Advanced Microelectronics: Part I - Process Controls
A. Christou, A. Dimoulas

Smolnikova

Cause and Fact Modeling as the Production Quality Management Method
Galina N. Smolnikova

Shibata

A Case Study of Risk Analysis for Product Liability Prevention
Yoshinobu Sato, Yoshifumi Shibata

SESSION NUMBER:

1.2.4

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Juilliard)

TITLE:

Insights from Nuclear Plant PSAs 1

CHAIR:

Z. Kovacs, Relko, Slovakia

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Afzali

Application of PSA to the Day-to-Day Plant Operation
Amir Afzali, Jim Fulford, Dave Bucheit, Eli Goldfeiz, Ken Tuley

Cillik

Mochovce NPP Safety Measures to Enhance Operational Safety and Reliability
Ivan Cillik

Bareith

Results of Recent PSA Studies on Paks NPP
E. Hollo, A. Bareith, S. Czako, J. Nigicser

Suárez

PSA Applications in Cofrentes NPP
Joaquín Suárez, Mariano Fiol

SESSION NUMBER:

1.2.5

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Uris)

TITLE:

Human Reliability Methods in Analysis of Critical Situations 1

CHAIR:

Y. Fujita, Mitsubishi Atomic Power Industries, Japan

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Forester

Application of a New Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA) at a Pressurized-Water Reactor
John A. Forester, Ken Kiper, Ann Ramey-Smith

Cacciabue

Human Factors Assessment for Highly Automated Systems: A Case Study of a Power Plant
P.C. Cacciabue, A. Carpignano, M. Piccini

Bieder

MERMOS: EDF's New Advanced HRA Method
C. Bieder, P. Le Bot, E. Desmares, F. Cara, J.L. Bonnet

Bieder

MERMOS: New Issues on Human Failure in Emergency Operations of Nuclear Power Plants
C. Bieder, E. Desmares, F. Cara, P. Le Bot, J.L. Bonnet

SESSION NUMBER:

1.2.6

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Shubert)

TITLE:

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis in Environmental Remediation

CHAIR:

S. Hirschberg, Paul Scherrer Inst., Switzerland

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Bonano

Application of Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis to the Evaluation and Ranking of Environmental Remediation Alternatives: A Project Summary
Evaristo J. Bonano

Salter

Application of Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis to the Evaluation and Ranking of Environmental Remediation Alternatives: Identification and Evaluation of Alternatives
P. Salter, D. Smith, A. Ghassemi, S. Weisband, K. Peil

Apostolakis

Application of Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis to the Evaluation and Ranking of Environmental Remediation Alternatives: Deliberation
G.E. Apostolakis, S.E. Pickett

Jennings

Application of Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis to the Evaluation and Ranking of Environmental Remediation Alternatives: Stakeholder Participation and Integration
Stephanie G. Jennings

SESSION NUMBER:

1.2.7

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Regency)

TITLE:

Uncertainty Analysis - Techniques and Applications 1

CHAIR:

R. Cooke, T.U. Delft, The Netherlands

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Sørensen

Sensitivity Analysis Methodologies and their Applications
A. Saltelli, T. Sørensen

Righini

An Advanced Mean Value Method for the Treatment of Uncertainties in Reliability Calculations
Giangiacomo Minak, Renzo Righini

Dessars

Uncertainty Analysis of a Transient with Elliptically Distributed Parameters
N. Dessars, J. Devooght

Tanaka

Dempster-Shafer Theoretical Modeling for Reliable Monitoring Design under Uncertainty
Kenji Tanaka

SESSION NUMBER:

1.2.8

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 10:45AM - 12:15PM (Majestic)

TITLE:

Common Cause Failure Analysis - Data and Insights

CHAIR:

D. Rasmuson, US NRC, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Rasmuson

Some General Insights from the USNRC's Common Cause Failure Database
Dale Rasmuson, Ali Mosleh, Frances Marshall

Marshall

Common Cause Failure Susceptibilities at Nuclear Power Plants
Frances M. Marshall, Dale M. Rasmuson, Ali Mosleh

Tokmachev

Issues Related to Development of VVER Specific Data Base on CCFs
G. Tokmachev

Werner

Recent Development of the ICDE Project
Lennart Carlsson, Gunnar Johanson, Wolfgang Werner

SESSION NUMBER:

1.3.1

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Alvin)

TITLE:

Systems Modeling 2

CHAIR:

A. Dykes, PLG, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Matsuoka

An Application of the GO-FLOW Methodology - Evaluation of Component Cooling Water System for New Type Marine Reactor-
Takeshi Matsuoka, Nobuo Mitomo, Tsutao Hoshi

Yanar

System Structuring for Risk Analysis Using Object Oriented Methodology
Deniz K. Yanar

Matsuoka

An Application of the GO-FLOW Methodology -A Reliability Analysis of Automatic Train Control System of Shinkansen in Japan-
Takeshi Matsuoka, Kenji Nakagawa

Louvet

A Method for Modeling Reliability of Mechanical Systems in the Automobile Industry
V. Louvet, A. Bracquemond, M.C. Suhner, M. Gabriel

SESSION NUMBER:

1.3.2

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Broadway)

TITLE:

Advanced Applications of Risk Assessment Technology

CHAIR:

I.A. Papazoglou, NCSR Demokritos, Greece

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Carlson

Model-Based Safety Assessments
David D. Carlson, Todd R. Jones

Cadwallader

Preliminary Master Logic Diagram for ITER Operation
L.C. Cadwallader, N.P. Taylor, A.E. Poucet

Pinna

Extensive Use of an Event Tree Model to Define the Reference Accident Sequences for ITER Plant
R. Caporali, T. Pinna, N.P. Taylor

O'Brien

Discussion of Nuclear Explosive Operation Process Changes Generated by a Preliminary Hazard Assessment
David O'Brien, Stewart R. Fischer, Steven Clement

SESSION NUMBER:

1.3.3

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Carnegie)

TITLE:

Medical Systems Risk

CHAIR:

T. van der Schaaf, T.U. Eindhoven, The Netherlands

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Battles

A Medical Event Reporting System in Transfusion Medicine: An Error Management Approach
James B. Battles, Harold S. Kaplan

Kaplan

The Hazard Analysis Action Decision Table, A Means to Limit Unnecessary Change in a Medical Event Reporting System
Harold S. Kaplan, James B. Battles, S. Quay Mercer

Schaaf

Speaker
Tjerk van der Schaaf

SESSION NUMBER:

1.3.4

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Juilliard)

TITLE:

PSA-Based Decision Making

CHAIR:

C. Spitzer, TUV Energy and Systems Technique, Germany

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Islamov

Prioritize Safety Upgrades for Reactors on the Basis of Risk Reduction and Costs
R.T. Islamov

Richner

Applications of Simplified and of Detailed PSA Models
Martin Richner, Samuel Zimmermann, Shobha Rao, John Stetkar

van der Borst

The Use of PSA in a License Renewal Process
M. van der Borst

Spitzer

Concept of an Extended Application of PSAs in Regulatory Procedures
Cornelia Spitzer, Manfred Heermann

SESSION NUMBER:

1.3.5

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Uris)

TITLE:

Human Reliability Methods in Analysis of Critical Situations 2

CHAIR:

G. Parry, US NRC, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Yu

Human Error Criticality Analysis of Igniter Assembly Behavior
Fan-Jang Yu, Sheue-Ling Hwang, Yu-Hao Huang

Taylor

Some Advances in Operator Error and Operational Hazards Analysis for Space Systems
J. Robert Taylor

Yllera

A Reference Framework for the Development and Documentation of Human Reliability Analyses (HRAs) for External Events (Fire) PSA
Benito Gil, Javier Yllera

Sträter

Problems of Cognitive Error Quantification and Approaches for Solution
Oliver Sträter

SESSION NUMBER:

1.3.6

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Shubert)

TITLE:

PSA Application to Maintenance and Testing 1

CHAIR:

K. Kiper, North Atlantic Energy Service Corp., USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Levinson

Risk-Informed Activities of the B&W Owners Group
Stanley H. Levinson, Robert S. Enzinna, Mark W. Averett

Iguchi

An Application of PSR Activities to the Integrated Operation and Maintenance System in the Fugen NPS
Yukihiro Iguchi, Takahisa Nakamura, Yoshio Nakamura, Masutake Sotsu

Vasseur

Structural Components Maintenance Optimization using PSAs
F. Ardorino, L. Magne, P. Aufort, D. Vasseur, B. Villain, P. Bryla, M. Courrèges, B. Monnier

Taminami

Risk Perspective Concerning Configuration Control
Tatsuya Taminami

SESSION NUMBER:

1.3.7

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Regency)

TITLE:

Risk-Informed Regulation - Methods and Insights 1

CHAIR:

G. Johanson, ES Konsult, Sweden
O. Backstrom, RELCON, Sweden

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Lantaron

Regulatory Evaluation of Severe Accident Vulnerabilities of Vandellos-II Nuclear Plant
J.A. Lantaron, R. Vijaykumar, E.G. Cazzoli, H. Esmaili, A. Kuritzky, M. Khatib-Rahbar

Meyer

Regulatory Evaluation of Core Damage Frequency and Severe Accident Vulnerabilities of a KWU Pressurized Water Reactor
A. Kuritzky, P. Meyer, E. Cazzoli, R. Vijaykumar, M. Khatib-Rahbar, H. Esmaili, G. Schoen, O. Zuchuat, S. Brosi, R. Sardella, U. Schmocker

Christie

Pilot Programs for Risk-Informed, Performance-Based Regulation
Bob Christie

Golay

Improved Nuclear Power Plant Operations through Performance-Based Safety Regulation
M.W. Golay, J. D. Dulik, S. M. Utton

SESSION NUMBER:

1.3.8

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 1:30PM - 3:00PM (Majestic)

TITLE:

Common Cause Failure Analysis - Methods

CHAIR:

P. Kvam, Georgia Inst. of Technology,

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Rutledge

Prevention of Dependent Failures in Spacecraft
Peter J. Rutledge, Ali Mosleh

Goble

Using Stress-Strength Simulations to Characterize Common Cause
William M. Goble, A.C. Brombacher, J. V. Bukowski, Iwan J.W.R.J. van Beurden

Rasmuson

Uncertainty Considerations in Common Cause Failure Analysis
Dale M. Rasmuson, Ali Mosleh

Kreuser

Consideration of Interpretation Uncertainties in the Determination of Common Cause Failure Probabilities
A. Kreuser, J. Peschke, C. Verstegen

SESSION NUMBER:

1.4.1

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Alvin)

TITLE:

Systems Modeling 3

CHAIR:

P. Kafka, GRS, Germany

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Orvis

Application of Probabilistic Methods in Analysis of Preclosure Design Basis Events for a Nuclear Waste Repository
D.D. Orvis, T.D. Dunn, D.W. Gwyn, J. A. Ziegler

Safie

An Overview of Quantitative Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Propulsion Elements
Fayssal M. Safie

Matsuoka

An Application of the GO-FLOW Methodology- Hazard and Operability Analysis of Olefin Plant-
Takeshi Matsuoka

van der Borst

Treatment of Common Cause Failures in Risk Monitoring
M. van der Borst, H. Schoonakker

SESSION NUMBER:

1.4.2

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Broadway)

TITLE:

PSA Application to In-Service Inspection

CHAIR:

R. Christie, Performance Technology, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Mikschl

Estimation of Pipe Failure Rates from Service Experience to Support Risk Informed In-Service Inspection Programs
Thomas J. Mikschl, Karl N. Fleming

Closky

Application of Risk-Informed Methods to Inservice Inspection (ISI) of Piping Systems
Nancy B. Closky, Amir Afzali, David Bucheit, Elizabeth A. Oswald, Richard L. Haessler

Hugonnard-Bruyère

Probabilistic Models for Predicting Piping Structural Reliability in the RCM-Method Called "OMF-Structures"
S. Hugonnard-Bruyère, B. Vérité, V. Venturini, B. Villain, P. Bryla

Fleming

Application of Markovian Technique to Modeling Influences of Inspection on Pipe Rupture Frequencies
Karl N. Fleming, Thomas J. Mikschl

SESSION NUMBER:

1.4.3

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Carnegie)

TITLE:

Modeling the Impact of Hardware Aging

CHAIR:

A. Camp, SNL, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Hunt

Aging Risk Assessment Performed for a Two-Loop Westinghouse Plant: Part I- The Methods and Approach
R. Niall M. Hunt, Todd A. Hilsmeier, Jerry K. Barrett

Hunt

Aging Risk Assessment Performed for a Two-Loop Westinghouse Plant: Part II- Insights and Findings
R. Niall M. Hunt, Todd A. Hilsmeier, Jerry K. Barrett

Simola

Experience Based Ageing Analysis of NPP Protection Automation
Kaisa Simola

Muta

Study on Method to Optimize Maintenance Interval Reflecting Aging Effects
Hitoshi Muta, Masahiko Fujii, Masahiro Yamashita

SESSION NUMBER:

1.4.4

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Juilliard)

TITLE:

Application of Fuzzy Logic and Possibility Theory in Risk Analysis

CHAIR:

M. Modarres, U. of Maryland, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Bement

The Use of Fuzzy Control System Methods for Characterizing Expert Judgment Uncertainty Distributions
Thomas R. Bement, Jane M. Booker, Mary A. Meyer, William J. Parkinson, Mohammad Jamshidi, Ronald E. Smith

Sandri

Using Genetic Algorithms in Possibilistic Expert Judgment Systems
Sandra A. Sandri, Claudio Correa, Paulo Malinski

Kozin

Imprecise Probabilities and Risk-Related Analysis
I.O. Kozin, E.B. Filimonov

Bonvicini

Fuzzy Logic: An Application to Uncertainty Evaluation in Risk Analysis of Hazardous Materials Transportation
S. Bonvicini, P. Leonelli, G. Spadoni

SESSION NUMBER:

1.4.5

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Uris)

TITLE:

Human Reliability Methods in Analysis of Critical Situations 3

CHAIR:

J. Yllera, CSN, Spain

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Houghton

Integration of Human Reliability Analysis into the High Consequence Process
F. Kay Houghton, Jerome Morzinski

Whitehead

Quantification Results from an Application of a New Technique for Human Event Analysis (ATHEANA) at a Pressurized-Water Reactor
Donnie W. Whitehead, Alan M. Kolaczkowski, Catherine M. Thompson

Auflick

HuRa! - A Prototype Expert System for Quantifying Human Errors
J. L. Auflick, H. A. Hahn, J. A. Morzinski

Dang

Benchmarking Current HRA Methods - Insights from a Study of SLIM Calibration Options
V.N. Dang, B. Reer

SESSION NUMBER:

1.4.6

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Shubert)

TITLE:

PSA Application to Maintenance and Testing 2

CHAIR:

S.H. Levinson, Framatome Technologies, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Shen

Methodology Development for the Risk-Informed Monitoring Criteria in the Maintainance Rule
Yu Shen, Gregory P. Rozga

Guey

Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Maintenance Rule
Ching Guey

Wong

PRA Applications and Technical Issues in NRC Maintenance Rule Baseline Inspections
S.M. Wong, J. Chung, P. Wilson

Vanover

Practical Uses of PSA in Support of the Maintenance Rule
Gregory A. Krueger, Stephen M. Hess, Donald E. Vanover

SESSION NUMBER:

1.4.7

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Regency)

TITLE:

Risk-Informed Regulation - Methods and Insights 2

CHAIR:

M.F. Versteeg, Dutch Nuclear Safety Department, The Netherlands

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Backstrom

Requirements and Working Process Implemented at OKG to use PSA in the Licensing Process
Ola Backstrom, Kerstin Gunnarsson

Baron

PSA-Based Regulatory Approach in Argentina
J. Baron, C. Chiossi, H. Vallerga

Görtz

PSA as Part of Safety Reviews of Nuclear Power Plants in Germany
H.P. Berg, R. Görtz

SESSION NUMBER:

1.4.8

TIME / ROOM:

Monday (9/14) 3:30PM - 5:00PM (Majestic)

TITLE:

Knowledge-Based PRA Tools

CHAIR:

J. Julius, Scientech, USA

PRESENTER

Title/Authors

Carpignano

Supporting the Integration of Safety Requirements in the Initial Phases of the Project Lifecycle by STARS
Davide Vallero, Andrea Carpignano

Onoue

Scenario Generator Development of Non-Catastrophic Event PSA
A. Onoue, S. Kojima, K. Sakata, K. Kawai

Villatte

Facilitating Risk and Dependability Analysis - A Computer Program for Automatic Fault Tree Generation: KB3
M. Pillière, S. Humbert, P. Mouttapa, N. Villatte, E. Bourgade, I. Renault

Ooyama

Development of PSA Support Tool "FT-FREE" at Nuclear Power Plants - Automatic FT Generation Function
Kazumi Furuhashi, Tatsuya Taminami, Yoshihiro Ooyama, Katsunori Kawai, Naoko Imamura