PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview
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Lead Author: Yoshikazu Deguchi Co-author(s): Keisuke Himoto, himoto-k92ta@mlit.go.jp
| HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF FIRE GROWTH RATE FOR VARIOUS BUILDING USAGES BASED ON THE FIRE INCIDENTS REPORT |
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| In the evacuation safety design of a building, it is necessary to set an appropriate design fire source, which can be represented by the fire growth rate α. In the basic Japanese procedure for evacuation safety design, the Verification method for evacuation safety, the fire growth rate α is defined by the sum of the αf, value calculated by the calorific value per unit floor area of loaded combustibles ql , and the αm, value correlated with the type of interior finish. However, it is not clear what levels of the fire growth rate α of the Verification method for evacuation safety are required for an actual fire. DEGUCHI et.al (2011) statistically derived the distributions of fire growth rate for rooms of selected usages by using the statistics on burnt floor area, extinction time, etc. of reported fires from 1995 to 2008. The authors concluded that the fire growth rates of an office, residence, restaurant and retail store can be approximated by lognormal distributions. However, the fire growth rates could have been obtained only for usages for which sufficient data had been available. In this study, distributions of fire growth rate α for rooms of various usages, including those with scarce data availability, have been estimated by using Hierarchical Bayesian Method. In addition, the levels of fire growth rates α of the Verification method for evacuation safety have been estimated by comparing them with the estimated fire growth rate α. First, fire data for 24 years from the Fire Incidents Report, which is issued annually by the National Fire Defense Agency, were categorized into 19 groups of 41 usages. Second, the distributions of the burnt floor area expansion rate Af⁄t^2 were estimated by the Hierarchical Bayesian Method, which can be used to estimate distributions where the number of data is insufficient. Finally, distributions of fire growth rates α were estimated by the Hierarchical Bayesian Method, from the product of the distributions of the burnt floor area expansion rate Af⁄t^2 and the heat release rate per unit floor area q". As a result, the following results were obtained: 1. Regression by the Hierarchical Bayesian Estimation was robust; the distributions of the fire growth rate α for various usages could be estimated in a plausible form by considering the overall characteristics. 2. In most usages, assuming the interior finish was a quasi-noncombustible material, the fire growth rate α of the method lay between the 75th and 95th percentiles of the estimated distributions of fire growth rate α. |
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Author and Presentation Info
Lead Author Name: Yoshikazu Deguchi (deguchi-y92ta@mlit.go.jp)
Bio: Dr. Deguchi is a Senior Reseacher in NILIM(National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management), Japan. He has worked for performance-based evacuation safety design and developments for fire safety technologes. Also, he is engaged in the revision of fire-protection-related regulations. His research area includes: burning behavior of combustibles, fire risk assesment and so on.
Country: Japan
Company: National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management
Job Title: Senior Reseacher
Bio: Dr. Deguchi is a Senior Reseacher in NILIM(National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management), Japan. He has worked for performance-based evacuation safety design and developments for fire safety technologes. Also, he is engaged in the revision of fire-protection-related regulations. His research area includes: burning behavior of combustibles, fire risk assesment and so on.
Country: Japan
Company: National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management
Job Title: Senior Reseacher