Common-Cause Failure Parameter Estimates with Causal Alpha Factor Model, Component-Specific Priors, and More
Authors
PrimaryZhegang Ma— Idaho National Laboratory · zhegang.ma@inl.gov
Common-cause failures (CCFs) are modeled in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) for commercial nuclear power plants as important risk contributors, predominantly using the Alpha Factor or Multiple Greek Letter (MGL) parametric models. The CCF alpha factor parameter estimations have been periodically updated since the early 2000s using the CCF database developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Recently, two additional sets of CCF alpha factor parameter estimations were developed that could be used for the NRC’s event and condition assessments (ECAs) or the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models. This paper presents an overview of these new CCF developments—the causal alpha factor parameter estimates and the alpha factor parameter estimation using component-specific CCF priors. In addition, the paper provides a plan for periodic CCF parameter updates, provides suggestions on how the different sets of CCF parameters should be used in the SPAR models and ECAs, and discusses the potential issues or challenges in future CCF parameter estimations.
✅Status: The abstract has been accepted!
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