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Abstract ZA242Full Paper + Presentation

Risk Assessment of Co-Siting Small Modular and Microreactors with Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities

Authors

PrimaryVinicius Zanardo Rodrigues— The Ohio State University · zanardorodrigues.1@osu.edu
Co-authorzhang.15721@osu.edu— zhang.15721@osu.edu Edit Profile
Co-authorcapobianco.17@osu.edu— capobianco.17@osu.edu Edit Profile
Co-authorjacquet.8@osu.edu— jacquet.8@osu.edu Edit Profile
Co-authorCarol Smidts— The Ohio State University · smidts.1@osu.edu
The concepts of Small Modular Nuclear Reactors and Micromodular Reactors have generated interest for decentralized electricity and heat generation in the industrial sector, presenting new co-siting challenges for existing nuclear safety assessment frameworks. Nuclear fuel cycle facilities, which cover conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication, and reprocessing, considered in this paper, are unique industrial sites. They concentrate radiological and chemical hazards in their perimeters that make the co-location of a fuel cycle facility and a reactor system a safety challenge due to the potentially dependent nature of accident scenarios, demanding more than a qualitative judgment. Any credible probabilistic safety assessment of such a proposition requires an empirical risk baseline by assessing and quantifying previous accidents and their causes. Accordingly, this work delimits its scope to establishing that nuclear fuel cycle facility baseline as a new precursor to a full bidirectional assessment in a co-siting environment with small and micro reactors; a detailed two-way reactor–facility interaction is reserved for the dedicated future probabilistic analysis. Currently, such a facility-driven baseline does not exist in a systematic form. A database of 184 nuclear fuel cycle facilities across 16 countries was compiled and validated, totaling roughly 3,881 facility years of operational experience, which increases to 25,836 facility-years when production capacity-weighted normalization is applied. Both methods were kept separate as they capture different aspects of exposure, and there is a 58.7% missing end-date rate for decommissioned facilities. Accident frequency and severity were examined across temporal, regional, and facility-type dimensions, with 90% confidence intervals estimated via Monte Carlo simulation over 1,000 iterations. The industry-wide fatality rate is markedly elevated for reprocessing, which carries the heaviest burden, more than three times the per-facility average. A 99.9% reduction in fatality rates was observed from a peak in the 1950s to the 2010s, with no fatalities recorded in the 2020s. The USA exhibits the strongest historical record; post-1990, no fatal accidents have been recorded at U.S. nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Using Poisson-based frequency modeling, a strong correlation between accidents and fatalities was observed in the historical data. The conducted risk-informed analysis seeks to leverage facility-specific hazard profiles, assess regional regulatory maturity, and integrate combined source-term evaluations. This approach is designed to serve as a foundational framework for the subsequent development of a more comprehensive probabilistic safety assessment.
Status: The abstract has been accepted!
Paper Status: Accepted with comments — View submitted paper
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