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Abstract ZA242Full Paper + Presentation

Risk Assessment of Co-Siting Small Modular and Microreactors with Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities

Authors

PrimaryVinicius Zanardo Rodrigues— The Ohio State University · zanardorodrigues.1@osu.edu
Co-authorzhang.15721@osu.edu— zhang.15721@osu.edu Edit Profile
Co-authorcapobianco.17@osu.edu— capobianco.17@osu.edu Edit Profile
Co-authorjacquet.8@osu.edu— jacquet.8@osu.edu Edit Profile
Co-authorCarol Smidts— The Ohio State University · smidts.1@osu.edu
The concepts of Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs) and Micromodular Reactors (MMRs) have generated interest in decentralized electricity and heat generation in the industrial sector, presenting new co-siting challenges for existing nuclear safety assessment frameworks. Nuclear fuel cycle facilities (NFCs), conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication, and reprocessing, considered for this paper, are unique industrial sites. They concentrate radiological and chemical hazards in their perimeters that make the co-location of a fuel cycle facility and a reactor system a complex safety challenge due to the potential dependent nature of accident scenarios, demanding more than a qualitative judgment. Any credible probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of such a proposition requires an empirical risk baseline, by assessing and quantifying previous accidents and their causes, to stand on. Currently, such a facility-driven baseline does not exist in a systematic form. A database of 184 NFC facilities across 16 countries was compiled and validated, totaling roughly 3,964 facility-years of operational experience under operation status-based calculation, which increases to 27,222 facility-years when production capacity-weighted normalization is applied. Both methods were kept separate as they capture different aspects of exposure, and there is a 58.7% missing end-date rate for decommissioned facilities. This gap was addressed using a five-tier confidence-weighted completion methodology (0.5-1.0). Accident frequency and severity were examined across temporal, regional, and facility-type dimensions, with 90% confidence intervals estimated via Monte Carlo simulation over 1,000 iterations. The results sketch a risk landscape with some clear gradients. The industry-wide fatality rate is estimated at 25.48 per 1,000 facility-years (90% CI: 19.85-35.08), though the variation across facility types is more instructive than the aggregate figure. The reprocessing sector carries, on average, the heaviest burden at 123.54 per 1,000 facility-years, more than three times the per-facility average. Enrichment (20.0/1,000),
conversion (18.75/1,000), and fuel fabrication (16.67/1,000) are the other stages of the nuclear fuel cycle that follow in descending order. The temporal profile was also considered: fatality rates dropped by 99.7% from a 1950s peak of 733.3 per 1,000 facility-years to 2.02 in the 2010s, with nothing recorded in the 2020s. The USA exhibits the strongest historical record at 7.78 per 1,000 facility-years; post-1990, no fatal accidents have been recorded at U.S. NFC facilities. Using Poisson-based frequency modeling, a strong correlation between accidents and fatalities (
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