PSAM 16 - Session Th23 Overview

PSAM 16 Conference Session Th23 Overview

Session Chair: Floris Goerlandt (floris.goerlandt@dal.ca)

Paper 1 TH35

Lead Author: Theresa Stewart Co-author(s): Ali Mosleh, mosleh@ucla.edu

Probabilistic Physics of Failure Modeling of Non-metallic Pipelines in Oil and Gas Applications
The use of thermoplastic composite pipelines (TCP) has grown in recent years as an alternative to steel pipelines in the offshore oil and gas industry, due to thermoplastic composites having excellent corrosion resistance and greater flexibility than traditional thermoset-matrix composites. In order to understand the performance of these materials in the field, studies have derived experimental, analytical, and theoretical estimates of the mechanical and thermal properties of TCP in dry conditions, but studies in wet or acidic environments are currently restricted to the empirical domain. This study proposes a method to incorporate degradation of the mechanical properties of TCP resulting from exposure to environmental factors into a long-term mechanical analysis. To do this, the mechanical properties of the TCP will be updated at each time interval before evaluating the pipe under a range of combined pressure and bending loads using FEA analysis.

Probabilistic Physics of Failure Modeling of Non-metallic Pipelines in Oil and Gas Applications

The use of thermoplastic composite pipelines (TCP) has grown in recent years as an alternative to steel pipelines in the offshore oil and gas industry, due to thermoplastic composites having excellent corrosion resistance and greater flexibility than traditional thermoset-matrix composites. In order to understand the performance of these materials in the field, studies have derived experimental, analytical, and theoretical estimates of the mechanical and thermal properties of TCP in dry conditions, but studies in wet or acidic environments are currently restricted to the empirical domain. This study proposes a method to incorporate degradation of the mechanical properties of TCP resulting from exposure to environmental factors into a long-term mechanical analysis. To do this, the mechanical properties of the TCP will be updated at each time interval before evaluating the pipe under a range of combined pressure and bending loads using FEA analysis.

Paper TH35 | |

A PSAM Profile is not yet available for this author.

Paper 2 RI146

Lead Author: Ricardo Lopez Co-author(s): Jorge Ballesio, jorge.ballesio@nasa.gov Robert Cross, robert.cross-1@nasa.gov Michael Worden, Mike.Worden@bsee.gov

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico
Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Depending on the activities in progress at the time of the threat, securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the time it takes for them to reach the rig location. The objective of this study is to use the available 50 years of past cyclone history to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity would be exposed to an upcoming cyclone whose forecasted track cone and storm size lies within that location. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Version 4. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. Also, the tool allows the user to input a T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Depending on the activities in progress at the time of the threat, securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the time it takes for them to reach the rig location. The objective of this study is to use the available 50 years of past cyclone history to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity would be exposed to an upcoming cyclone whose forecasted track cone and storm size lies within that location. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data from the Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Version 4. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. Also, the tool allows the user to input a T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Paper RI146 | Download the paper file. | Download the presentation pdf file.

Name: Ricardo Lopez (ricardo.a.lopez@nasa.gov)

Bio: Probabilistic risk analyst working with NASA's Safety & Mission Assurance contract. Civil Engineer with 14 year of experience in hazard analysis, regulatory compliance, and reliability and probabilistic risk assessments of drilling and production operations for the oil and gas sector, with an emphasis on offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

Country: USA
Company: SAIC
Job Title: NASA Statistician Principal

Paper 3 CS185

Lead Author: Colin Schell Co-author(s): Austin Lewis (adlewis@umd.edu) Andres Ruiz-Tagle (aruiztag@umd.edu) Katrina Groth (kgroth@umd.edu)

Construction and Verification of a Bayesian Network for Third-Party Excavation Risk Assessment (BaNTERA)
According to the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA), third-party damage is a leading cause of natural gas pipeline accidents. Although the risk of third-party damage has been widely studied in the literature, current models do not capture a sufficiently comprehensive set of up-to-date root cause factors and their dependencies. This limits their ability to achieve an accurate risk assessment that can be traced to meaningful elements of an excavation. This paper presents the construction, verification, and validation of a probabilistic Bayesian network model for third-party excavation risk assessment, BaNTERA. The model was constructed and its performance verified using the best available industry data and previous models from multiple sources. Historical industry data and nationwide statistics were compared with BaNTERA’s damage rate predictions to validate the model. The result of this work is a comprehensive risk model for the third-party damage problem in natural gas pipelines.

Construction and Verification of a Bayesian Network for Third-Party Excavation Risk Assessment (BaNTERA)

According to the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA), third-party damage is a leading cause of natural gas pipeline accidents. Although the risk of third-party damage has been widely studied in the literature, current models do not capture a sufficiently comprehensive set of up-to-date root cause factors and their dependencies. This limits their ability to achieve an accurate risk assessment that can be traced to meaningful elements of an excavation. This paper presents the construction, verification, and validation of a probabilistic Bayesian network model for third-party excavation risk assessment, BaNTERA. The model was constructed and its performance verified using the best available industry data and previous models from multiple sources. Historical industry data and nationwide statistics were compared with BaNTERA’s damage rate predictions to validate the model. The result of this work is a comprehensive risk model for the third-party damage problem in natural gas pipelines.

Paper CS185 | Download the paper file. | Download the presentation PowerPoint file.

Name: Colin Schell (cschell@umd.edu)

Bio: Colin is a second-year Ph.D. student in the Reliability Engineering program at the University of Maryland. Advised by Dr. Katrina Groth at the Systems Risk and Reliability Analysis lab (SyRRA), his research focuses on using causal models to better understand pipeline risks stemming from mechanical and natural hazard loading conditions, as well as third-party excavation. Colin also received his B.S. in mechanical engineering from the University of Maryland in 2020.

Country: USA
Company: University of Maryland
Job Title: Graduate Research Assistant