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Abstract ZI276Full Paper + Presentation

A Multi-Hazard Assessment Framework for Tropical Cyclones in South Korea: Data Development and Joint Probability Analysis

Authors

PrimaryZiyue Liu— University of Maryland · ziyue20@terpmail.umd.edu
Co-authorMichelle (Shelby) Bensi— University of Maryland · mbensi@umd.edu
Tropical cyclone (TC)–induced coastal hazards bring tens of billions in losses worldwide each year, posing risks to coastal communities and critical infrastructure. Those coastal hazard are inherently multi-hazard, typically involving strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. While a range of methodologies has been developed to assess individual and combined TC-induced coastal hazards along the North Atlantic coast of the United States, comparable multi-hazard assessment frameworks remain somewhat limited in other regions, such as the Northeast Asian coastal zone. This study aims to identify and evaluate the available data and methodologies for assessing compound TC-induced coastal hazards in South Korea. Our assessment reveals that limited data availability and the lack of predictive hazard models present significant challenges to directly applying North Atlantic–based hazard assessment approaches in this region. To address these challenges, extensive data processing was conducted to refine and augment historical TC and observational datasets. Local gauge records were matched to historical TC events and spatially and temporally interpolated to extract storm-specific peak values and occurrence times for storm wind, surge, and rainfall. Finally, a trivariate joint probability analysis was conducted to estimate the return periods of compound hazard events using multiple logical constructions (e.g., union and intersection of exceedances). The results highlight the importance of accounting for compound effects in TC hazard assessment and provide a foundation for developing region-specific multi-hazard frameworks for coastal risk analysis in South Korea.
Status: The abstract has been accepted!
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