PSAM 16 - Paper Overview

PSAM 16 Conference Paper Overview

Welcome to the PSAM 16 Conference paper and speaker overview page.

Lead Author: Ji Suk Kim Co-author(s): Man Cheol Kim, charleskim@cau.ac.kr

Effect of the Number of Ground Motion Subintervals on the Seismic PSA
There are two approaches to quantify a seismic probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) model. One is simulation approach such as Monte Carlo simulation and Latin Hypercube sampling, and the other is discrete approach[1]. The discrete approach has several advantages including the compatibility with internal event PSA quantification, preservation of logical links between the primary seismic event tree and secondary seismic event trees, and use of conventional PSA software[1,2]. However, in the discrete approach, the number of ground motion subintervals have been used with the lack of backgrounds for the effect on the seismic risks. In addition, the number of subintervals is limited in practice because the seismic PSA model should be quantified for each subinterval. In this study, we examine the effect of the number of ground motion subintervals on the seismic risk and identify the possibility that the seismic risk may be underestimated when the number of subintervals is small. We also provide the method for finding the regions of ground motion level that the underestimation of the seismic risk may be occur. Finally, we can suggest the quantification method for a large number of subintervals to improve the accuracy of results. This study can provide the backgrounds for determining the number of ground motion subintervals in seismic PSA. [1] International Atomic Energy Agency, Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Seismic Events. 2020, INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY: Vienna. [2] J.S. Kim. and M.C. Kim, Insights gained from applying negate-down during quantification for seismic probabilistic safety assessment. Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 2022.

Effect of the Number of Ground Motion Subintervals on the Seismic PSA

There are two approaches to quantify a seismic probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) model. One is simulation approach such as Monte Carlo simulation and Latin Hypercube sampling, and the other is discrete approach[1]. The discrete approach has several advantages including the compatibility with internal event PSA quantification, preservation of logical links between the primary seismic event tree and secondary seismic event trees, and use of conventional PSA software[1,2]. However, in the discrete approach, the number of ground motion subintervals have been used with the lack of backgrounds for the effect on the seismic risks. In addition, the number of subintervals is limited in practice because the seismic PSA model should be quantified for each subinterval. In this study, we examine the effect of the number of ground motion subintervals on the seismic risk and identify the possibility that the seismic risk may be underestimated when the number of subintervals is small. We also provide the method for finding the regions of ground motion level that the underestimation of the seismic risk may be occur. Finally, we can suggest the quantification method for a large number of subintervals to improve the accuracy of results. This study can provide the backgrounds for determining the number of ground motion subintervals in seismic PSA. [1] International Atomic Energy Agency, Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Seismic Events. 2020, INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY: Vienna. [2] J.S. Kim. and M.C. Kim, Insights gained from applying negate-down during quantification for seismic probabilistic safety assessment. Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 2022.

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Author and Presentation Info

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Lead Author Name: Ji Suk Kim (sssuke@cau.ac.kr)

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Company: Chung-Ang university
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