Technical Program
Wednesday, November 29
Dynamic Analysis
T. Matsuoka (Ship Research Institute)
C. Smidts(University of Maryland)
Wednesday (11/29) 9:00 - 10:30
Top Event Estimation Using the Inclusion-Exclusion Principle for Fault Trees with Sequential Failure Logic
W. Long, Y. Sato (Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine) [Long]
Integrated Risk Assessment in Process Plants with Dynamic Management Systems
O.N. Aneziris, I.A. Papazoglou (National Center for Scientific Research "DEMOKRITOS"), A. Hale (DELFT University), L. Bellamy (SAVE Consultants), J. Post (RIVM) [Aneziris]
An Application of the ESD Framework to the Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Dynamic Systems
S. Swaminathan (Futron Corporation), C. Smidts (University of Maryland) [Smidts]

Radioactive Waste Management 1
E.K. Webb (SNL)

Wednesday (11/29) 9:00 - 10:30
Uncertainty Propagation in Radionuclide Transport for Performance Assessment Modeling of a Nuclear Waste Disposal
A. Dutfoy, P-L. Lucille (EDF) [Dutfoy]
Parametric Uncertainty Analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling in Risk Assessment of Deep Geological HLW Repository
D.W. Lee, C.H. Chung (Seoul National University), C.L. Kim (KEPCO) [Lee]

Risk-Based/Informed Decision Making 1
G.E. Apostolakis (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Wednesday (11/29) 13:30 - 15:00
Distributed Decision-Making and Uncertainty Management: Accident Risk Assessment in Petroleum Development Projects
J. Hovden (Norwegian University of Science and Technology), T. Steiro (SINTEF Industrial Management) [Hovden]
Risks and Costs due to Power System Operations : A Swiss Case Study of a Strategic Planning Methodology for Investigating Sustainable Systems
W.W. Schenler, A.V. Gheorghe (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), S.R. Connors (MIT), P.-A. Haldi (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), S. Hirschberg (Paul Scherrer Institute) [Schenler]
A Decision-Making Support System for Disaster Prevention Measures Based on Evaluated Earthquake Risk
K. Mizukoshi, H. Ishida, A. Kusaka, K. Torisawa, (Kajima Technical Research Institute)
The UK's Handing of BSE - 1986 - 93
P. Anand (The Open University) [Anand]

HRA Method 3
V.N. Dang (Paul Scherrer Institut)
Y.Niwa (INSS)

Wednesday (11/29) 9:00 - 10:30
Using the CAHR-method to Derive Cognitive Error Mechanisms
O. Strater (Gesellschaft fur Anlagen-und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH) [Strater]
A Comparison of Emerging Methods for Errors of Commission Based on Applications to the Davis-Besse (1985) Event
V.N. Dang, B. Reer (Paul Scherrer Institut), O. Strater (Gesellschaft fur Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS)), S. Hirschberg (Paul Scherrer Institut) [Dang]
Experience With The Decision Tree Method For Several Applications
A.J. Spurgin (Independent Consultant) [Spurgin]
Function Allocation Approaches And The PSA Event Tree
Y. Niwa (INSS), E. Hollnagel (University of Linkoping)

Flight Safety 1
J.A. Stoop (Delft University of Technology)

Wednesday (11/29) 9:00 - 10:30
Estimating the Risk of Aircraft Collision due to Loss of Planned Longitudinal Separation in the North Pacific Routes
S. Nagaoka, O. Amai (Electronic Navigation Research Institute) [Nagaoka]
Estimation of Lateral Collision Risk for Aircraft on the North Pacific Routes
O. Amai, S. Nagaoka (Electronic Navigation Research Institute) [Amai]
How to Assess the Effects of Autopilot's Failures upon Flight Safety
J. Borgon, M. Mercik, S. Michalak, A. Szelmanowski (Air Force Institute of Technology) [Borgon]

Seismic Hazard Assessment
K. Hirata (CRIEPI)

Wednesday (11/29) 9:00 - 10:30
Technical Issues on Incorporating Probability-based Scenario Earthquakes into Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants
J. Hirose, K. Muramatsu (Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute), T. Okumura, S. Taki (Ohsaki Research Institute, Inc.), T. Takada (University of Tokyo) [Hirose]
Seismic Safety Assessment of Building Structures Using Monte Carlo Simulation
A. Kusaka, T. Yamada, H. Ishida (Kajima Technical Research Institute) [Kusaka]
Seismic Hazard Estimation Based on Results of Active Fault Investigations
H. Ishida (Kajima Technical Research Institute) [Ishida]

Design Assistance of Nuclear Systems
G. Feuillade (EDF)
K. Yahagi (Tokyo Electric Power Co.)

Wednesday (11/29) 9:00 - 10:30
The Use of PSA in Designing the European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR).
J. L. Caron (Nuclear Power International), V. Sorel (Electricite de France), A. Ellia-Hervy, E. Soursou, C. Maupuy (Framatome), H. Kollasko, P.mackert (Siemens-KWU) [Ellia-Hervy]
Use of Probabilistic Safety Assessment in Structuring Conceptual Design of Accident Mitigation Systems
H. Nishiura, S. Urata, Y. Tsujikura (The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc.), K. Kuroiwa, H. Fujimoto (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.) [Nishiura]
Methods for Formulation of Design Basis Accidents Within a Risk-Informed Approach to Safety Regulation of New Nuclear Power Plant
B.C. Beer, G.E. Apostolakis, M.W. Golay (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) [Golay]
Risk-oriented Design Modifications for the CAREM-25 Prototype
J.H. Baron, J.E. Nunez, S.S. Rivera (Universidad Nacional de Cuyo) [Baron]

Advanced Methodology
Y. Sato (Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine)
K. Cassidy (Health Safety Executives)

Wednesday (11/29) 10:45 - 12:15
Study On Mechanical System Reliability Allocation
W. Wei, S.W. Xiao, B.Y. Zhang (Beijing Institute of Special Vehicle) [Wei, Xiao]
Handling Very Large Event Trees by Means of Binary Decision Diagrams
F. Ducamp, S. Planchon (Institut de Protection et Surete Nucleaire), A. Rauzy, P. Thomas (CNRS-LaBRI, University Bordeaur-1) [Rauzy]
A New Formula for Fast Reliability Evaluation of an Acyclic Digraph using Domination Theory
K.W. Rhie (Hoseo University), G. Becker (Risa Safety Engineering GmbH), H.K. Lim (Chungbuk National University) [Rhie]
A Method to Solve Logical Loops in the GO-FLOW Methodology
T. Matsuoka (Ship Research Institute) [Matsuoka]

Radioactive Waste Management 2
A. Dutfoy (EDF)

Wednesday (11/29) 10:45 - 12:15
A Trial of Probabilistic Simulation for Reference Case in the Second Progress Report on Research and Development for the Geological Disposal of HLW in Japan
K. Wakasugi (Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute), E.K. Webb (Sandia National Laboratories), H. Makino, Y. Ishihara (Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute), Y. Ijiri (Taisei Corporation), A. Sawada, T. Baba, K. Ishiguro, H. Umeki (Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute) [Wakasugi]
Threshold Assessment: Definition of Acceptable Sites as Part of Site Selection for the Japanese HLW Program
S. Mckenna (Sandia National Laboratories), K. Wakasugi (Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute), E. Webb (Sandia National Laboratories), H. Makino, Y. Ishihara (Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute), Y. Ijiri (Taisei Corporation), A. Sawada, T. Baba, K. Ishiguro, H. Umeki (Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute) [Webb]
A Performance Assessment Review Tool for the Proposed Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA
S. Mohanty (Southwest Research Institute), R.B. Codell (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission) [Mohanty]

Risk-Based/Informed Decision Making 2
K. N. Fleming (ERIN)
Shigeo Kojima (CSD)

Wednesday (11/29) 15:30 - 17:00
Promotion of Technical Harmonisation on Risk-Based Decision Making
C. Kirchsteiger, G. Cojazzi (EC, Joint Research Centre) [Kirchsteiger]
ORAM and Shutdown PRA Comparison Study
W.G. He, T.A. Hilsmeier, T.K. Carrier (PSE & G) [He]
Proposal for Risk-informed Safety Management in Japanese Nuclear Power Plants
T. Irie, M. Ohtani (Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Incorporated), S. Kojima, S. Aoi (Computer Software Development Co., Ltd.), K.N. Fleming, D.E. True (ERIN Engineering and Research, Inc.) [Irie]

HRA Method 4
C. Bieder (Electricite de France)
K. Monta (Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation)

Wednesday (11/29) 10:45 - 12:15
A Description of the Revised ATHEANA (A Technique for Human Event Analysis)
J.A. Forester (Sandia National Laboratories), D.C. Bley (Buttonwood Consulting, Inc.), S.E. Cooper, A.M. Kolaczkowski (Science Applications International Corp.), C.M. Thompson, A. Ramey-Smith (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), J. Wreathall (John Wreathall and Co.)@[Wreathall]
Feedback from the Actual Implementation of the MERMOS Method
C. Bieder, S. Vidal, P. Le Bot (Electricite de France) [Vidal]
Trial Application of ATHEANA to SGTR in Level 1 PSA for a Japanese PWR
M. Fukuda, T. Uchida, M. Hirano (Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation) [Fukuda]

Flight Safety 2
J.A. Stoop (Delft University of Technology)

Wednesday (11/29) 10:45 - 12:15
Modeling Flight Safety Scenarios Via Petri Nets
W.G. Schneeweiss (Fern University) [Schneeweiss]
The Development of an Aviation Risk Assessment Model which Allows Cost Benefit Analysis of Safety Measures
A.L.C. Roelen (National Aerospace Laboratory NLR), M. Pedrali (EC, Joint Research Centre), P. Hayes (Airclaims Ltd), T-L. Mariton (Sextant Avionique) [Roelen]

Seismic Risk Assessment for Nuclear Facilities
A.J. Murphy (U.S.Nuclear Regulatory Commission)
T. Takada (Univ. of Tokyo)

Wednesday (11/29) 10:45 - 12:15
Decreasing the Blockage Risks of the Cooling Water Intakes at Loviisa NPP
K.E. Jankala (Fortum Engineering Ltd.), J.K. Vaurio (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Fortum Power and Heat) [Jankala]
U.S. Regulatory Perspective on Seismic Design Ground Motion, a Uniform Reliability Spectrum
N.C. Chokshi, R.M. Kenneally, A.J. Murphy (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), R.K. McGuire (Risk Engineering Inc.) [Murphy]
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Review of Licensees' Individual Plant Examination of External Events (IPEEE) Submittals: Seismic Analyses
A.M. Rubin, N.C. Chokshi (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), M.P. Bohn (Sandia National Laboratory), R.T. Sewell (Consultant to Energy Research, Inc.,) J.R. Lehner (Brookhaven National Laboratory) [Rubin]
An Abstracted Model for Assessing the Effect of Seismically Induced Rockfall on the Waste Package Performance for High-level Radioactive Waste Disposal
S.M. Hsiung, S. Mohanty (Southwest Research Institute) [Mohanty]

Accident Management and Severe Accident Analysis 1
H. Schaefer (GRS)
Y. Narumiya (Kansai Electric Power Co.)

Wednesday (11/29) 10:45 - 12:15
The Computer Aided Education and Training System for Accident Management
M. Yoneyama, T. Masuda (Tokyo Electric Power Company) R. Kubota (Hitachi, Ltd), T. Fujiwara, H. Sakuma (Hitachi Engineering Co., Ltd) [Yoneyama]
Alternate PWR Cooling Modes and Success Criteria
M. Richner, S. Zimmermann (Nordostschweizerische Kraftwerke) [Richner]
Analysis of the Effect of Atmospheric Dump Valve in the Loss of Cooling System Accident during Shutdown Operation
Y.S. Son (Dong-Eui University), J.H. Park, T.Y. Sung (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) [Son]

Network Approaches for Risk Assessment
T. Kohda(Kyoto University)

Wednesday (11/29) 13:30 - 15:00
The Usage of Generalised Stochastic Petri Nets for Reliability Assessments of Passive Safety Installations of SWR 1000 - A Pilot Application -
R. Mock (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich) [Mock]
New Formulas in Domination Theory and It's Application for Reliability Analysis
K.W. Rhie (Hoseo University), H.K. Lim (Chungbuk National University) [Lim]
Application of Pertri Nets in the Reliability Analysis of a Spallation Neutron Source
E. Badreddin (University of Mannheim) [Badreddin]

Risk Communication, Risk Message Preparedness
Shinkichi Sugimori (Tokyo Kasei University)
Yasumasa Tanaka( Gakusyuin University)

Wednesday (11/29) 13:30 - 15:00
Managing the Risks of Reputational Disasters in Japan: Theoretical Basis and Need for Information Volunteers
M. Itoh (University of Electro-Communications) [Itoh]
The Formula for Estimating the Deadline of Vaccination to Prepare for an Epidemic: Application of Decision Analytic Approach to Surveillance Data at the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in Kobe City, 1995
M. Maekawa, N. Ohboshi, T. Kojo, H. Matsuo, I. Kamae (Kobe University) [Maekawa]
An Analysis of Business Interruption Risk at Computer Data Centers for Telecommunication Systems
J.C. Lin (EQE International Inc.) [Lin]
Risk Communication on the Problems Regarding Endocrine Disruptors and Release of Information on Pollutant Emission from Industrial Plants
J. Sekizawa (National Institute of Health Sciences), S. Sugimori (Tokyo Kasei University) [Sekizawa]

Risk-based Optimization 1
M.W. Golay (Massachusetts Institutue of Technology)

Wednesday (11/29) 9:00 - 10:30
Enhancements to the OPTIPATH Model for Routing Hazardous Material Shipment
S. Bonvicini, G. Costacurta, P. Leonelli, G. Spadoni (University of Bologna) [Spadoni]
A Method for Systematic Resource Allocation for Improved Nuclear Power Plant Performance
L. Doboe, M.W. Golay, N.E. Todreas, F. Li (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) [Golay]
On the Optimal Maintenance Interval for Water Supply System in Building Equipment
G. Kajiwara (Shimizu Corp.), M. Horigome (Tokyo University of Mercantile Marine) [Kajiwara]

Organizational Factor
B. Wilpert (Berlin University of Technology)
K. Monta (NUPEC)

Wednesday (11/29) 13:30 - 15:00
Organizational Factors Important to the Safe Operation of NPP's
A. Frischknecht (Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate), G. Baumont (Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire) [Baumont]
A Study on the Effect of the Organizational Factors on Work Sites Safety in the Construction Industry in Japan
T. Shoji, Y. Suzuki, S. Hanayasu, K. Fukaya, Y. Egawa, T. Nakamura (National Institute of Industrial Safety), M. Kojima, A. Hirose (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry) [Shoji]
On the Organizational Learning Work Process
R.S. Weil, G.E. Apostolakis (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) [Apostolakis]
A Structure for the Evaluation and Development of Organizational Factor Frameworks
K. Oien (The Norwegian University of Science and Technology), S. Sklet (SINTEF Industrial Management, Safety and Reliability) [Oien]

Railway Design and Analysis
H. Fukuoka (Railway Technical Research Institute)
V.S. Ho (KCRC)

Wednesday (11/29) 13:30 - 15:00
Railway Dependability Targets Apportionment
H. Zerkani (AMIEE), R.N. Dumolo (Molt MacDonald Limited) [Zerkani, Dumolo]
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Railroad Derailment Accidents
A.A. Dykes (EQE International, Inc), G.P. Wolf (Rail Sciences, Inc.)

Structure Fire Risk 1
A. Sekizawa (National Research Institute of Fire and Disaster)
J. Ludin (Lund Univ.)

Wednesday (11/29) 13:30 - 15:00
Risk-Based and Risk-Informed Systems Approaches to Fire Safety Engineering: Historical Review and Current Trends
B.J. Meacham (Ove Arup & Partners) [Meacham]
A Trial for Risk Based Fire Safety Standards of Buildings
T. Tanaka (Kyoto University), Y. Ohmiya (Building Research Institute) [Tanaka]
Assessment of Legibility of Egress Route in a Building from Viewpoint of Architectural Planning and Design
H. Notake, M. Ebihara, Y. Yashiro (Shimizu Corporation) [Notake]
Use of a Decision-Support Tool for Addressing Risk Concepts in Performance-Based Building Fire Safety Regulation Development
B.J. Meacham (Ove Arup & Partners) [Meacham]

Accident Management and Severe Accident Analysis 2
G.C. Park (SNU)
K. Muramatsu (Japan Atomic Energy Rsearch Institute)

Wednesday (11/29) 13:30 - 15:00
Containment Performance Analysis for the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant with Recovery Action between Core Damage and Containment Failure
S.D. Kim, J.H. Park, Y. Choi, Y. Jin, D.H. Kim (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) [S.D. Kim]
Effects of Severe Accident Management Measures on Radionuclide Behavior for BWR-5 with Mark-II Containment
M. Kajimoto, K. Funayama, O. Kawabata, N. Tanaka (Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation) [Kajimoto]
Analysis of Radionuclide Behavior during Containment Venting for BWR-5 Plant with Mark-II Containment
M. Kajimoto, O. Kawabata, K. Funayama, N. Tanaka (Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation) [Kajimoto]

Hazard Identification and Precursor Study
M. Fukuda (NUPEC)
M.B. Sattison (Lockheed Martin Idaho Technology)

Wednesday (11/29) 15:30 - 17:00
Identification and Predictive Modelling of Risks at the Design Stage : Contribution of the MAFERGO Methodology
E. Fadier (Institut National de Recherche et de Securite), A. Didelot (Laboratoire de Recherche Genie des Systemes Industriels (LRGSI)) [Fadier]
Hazard Identification of BTX Plants Using Hazard Identification and Ranking Method
Y.H. Kim (Seoul National Univ.), I.W. Kim (Konkuk Univ.), I.T. Kim, K.H. Ahn (Korea Fire Protection Association), Y.K. Yeo (Hanyang Univ.), E.S. Yoon (Seoul National Univ.) [Y. H. Kim]
Insights from Using Influence Diagrams to Analyze Precursor Events
E. Borgonovo, C.L. Smith, G.E. Apostolakis (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), S. Deriot, J. Dewailly (Electricite de France) [Apostolakis]
Risk Insights for PWRs Derived from Accident Sequence Precursor Analysis Results
N. Watanabe, K. Muramatsu (Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute), K. Ogura, J. Mori (CSA Japan Co., Ltd.) [Watanabe]

Risk Communication Initiatives, Methodology
D. C. Bley( Buttonwood Consulting)
T. Taniguchi (CRIEPI)

Wednesday (11/29) 15:30 - 17:00
A Study on Determinants of Risk Perception and Attitude Structures Concerning Nuclear Power Technology
S. Tsuchida (Kansai University), A. Kitada, K. Ato (Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc.) [Tsuchida]
Why Is Risk Communication Hardly Applied in Japan? -Psychological Problem of Scientific Experts-
M. Kosugi, T. Tsuchiya, T. Taniguchi (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry) [Kosugi]
A Close Examination of Cross-Cultural Perceptions about Non-Nuclear Risks by Covariance Structure Analysis
N. Matsuda (University of Tsukuba), E. A. Rosa (Washington State University) [Matsuda]
Development of Technical Risk Communication Guideline in Nuclear Power Plant (NPP)
N. Nunogane, A. Onoue (Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc,), S. Kojima (Computer Software Development, Co., Ltd.), D. Bley, L. Bowen, J. Wreathall (TWWG) [Kojima]

Risk-based Optimization 2
I.S. Kim (Hanyang University)
M. Higuchi (JAPCO)

Wednesday (11/29) 10:45 - 12:15
Use of Probabilistic Safety Assessment in Decision Making of Korean Next Generation Reactor Design Optimization
S.J. Oh, J.H. Na, J.S. Lee (Korea Electric Power Corporation) [Oh]
Application of Decision Analysis to the Optimization of Common Cause Failure Defense Methods
M.C. Kim, I.S. Kim (Hanyang University) [I.S. Kim]
Risk-Informed Business Modeling for Nuclear Power Generation
J.K. Liming (EQE International, Inc.), C.R. Grantom (STP Nuclear Operating Company) [Grantom]
A Cost-Benefit Analysis to Determine the Optimal Level of Critical Spare Parts
J.C. Lin (EQE International Inc.) [Lin]

Railway Facilities
K. Takahashi (Asian Institute of Technology)
K. Notarianni (National Institute of Standards and Technology)

Wednesday (11/29) 15:30 - 17:00
Managing Risk in the Design of the Channel Tunnel Rail Link, UK
A. Formaniak, K. Harvey (Rail Link Engineering,), C.J. Milloy, P. Scott (Ove Arup and Partners) [Harvey]
Can Petrol Filling Station and Railway Co-Exist?
V. Ho (Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation (KCRC)) [Ho]
Lessons Learned from a Fault Tree Analysis of an Automatic Train Protection System
P.T. Katsumata (Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc.), V.S. Ho (KCRC), K.F. Walecki (Booz Allen & Hamilton, Inc.) [Katsumata]

Structure Fire Risk 2
K. Takahashi (Asian Institute of Technology)
K. Notarianni (National Institute of Standards and Technology)

Wednesday (11/29) 15:30 - 17:00
Risk Analysis Approaches in Fire Safety Design - A Swedish Perspective
H. Frantzich, J. Lundin (Lund University) [Lundin]
Application of Uncertainty Analysis to a Complex Computer Simulation Model: Use in Fire Protection Engineering Design
K.A. Notarianni (National Institute of Standards and Technology), P.S. Fischbeck (Carnegie Mellon University)
Fire Risk Assessment Method Based on an Idea of Fire Phase -Probabilistic Estimation Method of Fire Spread Area in Buildings-
M. Ebihara, H. Notake, Y. Yashiro (Shimizu Corporation) [Ebihara]
Development of Seismic-induced Fire Risk Assessment Method for a Building
A. Sekizawa (National Research Institute of Fire and Disaster), M. Ebihara, H. Notake (Shimizu Corporation) [Sekizawa]

Accident Management and Severe Accident Analysis 3
K.Y. Suh (SNU)
K. Abe (JAERI)

Wednesday (11/29) 15:30 - 17:00
Modeling of Gap Cooling Phenomena in LAVA-4 Test Using MELCOR
J.H. Park, S.Y. Park, S.D. Kim, Y.M. Song, D.H. Kim (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) [S.D. Kim]
Verification Study of Molten Core In-vessel Retention Analysis Using MAAP4 Code
T. Kohriyama, M. Ohtani (Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc.), A. Masui, H. Nagumo (Computer Software Development Co., Ltd.) [Kohriyama]
Role of Operator Response Guidelines in CANDU 9 Design Program
R.K. Jaitly (Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd.) [Andres]