Technical Program
Tuesday, November 28
Safety Critical Systems and Automation
A. Camp(Sandia National Laboratory)

Tuesday (11/28) 9:00 - 10:30
Application of Bayes Networks to Reliability Analysis of Software-based Automation Systems
U. Pulkkinen, A. Helminen (VTT Automation) [Pulkkinen]
The Probabilistic Assessment of Survivability and Safety of an Unmanned Control Systems with Multistage Degradation by Use of QD-diagrams
V.S. Kharchenko (Kharkov Military University) [Kharchenko]
Safety Analysis Methodology in Microprocessor Critical Applications
J.B. Camargo Jr., E. Canzian, J.R. Almeida Jr., B.A. Basseto, R.S. da Cunha, S.M. Paz (University of Sao Paulo) [Paz]
A Fuzzy Method for the Reliability and Safety Assessment of Critical Systems
P.S. Cugnasca, J.B. Camargo Jr., M.T.C. Andrade (University of Sao Paulo) [Cugnasca]

Insight from Risk Studies 1
H.P. Balfanz(TUV Nord)

Tuesday (11/28) 9:00 - 10:30
Comparison and Lessons Learned from Plant Specific PSA of German NPP
H.-P. Balfanz (TUV Nord), H.-P. Berg (Bundesamt fur Strahlenschutz), U. Steininger (TUV Suddeutschland) [Balfanz]
Comparison of the Level 1 PSA for Two Similar PWR Types : the French 900 MWe-series PWR and the Belgian Tihange 1 PWR
P. Dupuy, F. Corenwinder, J.M. Lanore (IPSN), D. Gryffroy, P. De Gelder, M. Hulsmans (AVN) [Gryffroy]
Risk Analysis of NPP in Multi-unit Site for Configurations of AAC Power Source
M.K. Kim (Korea Electric Power Research Institute) [Kim]
The Insights from Seismic Risk Analysis of Korean Nuclear Power Plants
S.K. Kang, B.S. Lee (Korea Power Engineering Company, Inc.) [Kang]

Environmetal Issues 1
V.F. Demin (RRC "Kurchatov Institute")
E.J. Bonano (Beta Corporation International)

Tuesday (11/28) 9:00 - 10:30
Estimation and Control of Health Risk due to Drinking Water Quality: Disinfection and Disinfection By-products
M. Asami (National Institute of Public Health) [Asami]
The Pit and the Safety Pendulum
R.L. Nitschke, A.G. Ramos (Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory) [Nitschke]
A Probabilistic Risk Analysis Model for Receiving Laser Eye Injury from Space Based Lasers
K. Schulmeister, G. Sonneck (Austrian Research Centers Seibersdorf), F. Rattay, H. Hodlmoser (Technical University Vienna), D. Sliney (US Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine), J. Mellerio (University of Westminster), A. Culoma, Ch. Preyssl (European Space Agency/ESTEC) [Schulmeister]

Concepts and Guidelines for HRA
E. Hollnagel (University of Linkoping)
F. Tanabe (Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute)

Tuesday (11/28) 9:00 - 10:30
Performance Deviations and the HEP
E. Hollnagel (University of Linkoping) [Hollnagel]
Towards Defense-in-Depth of Human-Machine Interaction
G.I. Petkov (Technical University of Sophia), S.I. Petkov (Naval Marine Academy) [G.I. Petkov]
Guidelines for the Regulatory Review of the Human Reliability Analysis in PSAs
B. Reer (Paul Scherrer Institut), P. Meyer (Swiss Federal Nuclear Inspectorate), V.N. Dang, S. Hirschberg (Paul Scherrer Institut) [Dang]
Improving Operational Safety in Nuclear Power Plants: Extended Consideration of the Human Factor Issue in PSAs
C. Spitzer (TUV Energy and Systems Technology Baden- Wurttemberg) [Spitzer]

C. Preyssl (European Space Agency)

Tuesday (11/28) 9:00 - 10:30
The Assessment of Capabilities to Prolong Service Lives of Individual Aeroplanes in the Course of Operational Phase
J. Borgon, P. Barszcz, S. Klimaszewski, H. Smolianski (Air Force Institute of Technology) [Barszcz]
Modeling the degradation of airframe engine temperature within the framework of maintenance costs
D. Jeannel, J. P. Poitevin (SNECMA MOTEURS)
Event Tree Methodology for Analyzing the Risk of Corrosion in Aircraft Systems
A. Knoll (Optimal Design, Inc.) [Knoll]
View through the Door of the SOFIA Project by a Reliability Engineer
M. V. Frank (Safety Factor Associates, Inc.) [Frank]

Risk Informed Applications for Operational Safety Management 1
Z. Kovacs (RELCO)
S.M. Wong (USNRC)

Tuesday (11/28) 9:00 - 10:30
PSA Analysis Focused on Mochovce NPP Safety Measures Evaluation from Operational Safety Point of View
I. Cillik, L. Vrtik, (VUJE - Trnava Inc.) [Cillik]
Application of Risk-Informed Decision Making to the Steam Generator Overfill Design Basis for the Catawba Nuclear Station
M.J. Barrett, R.P. Boyer, M.V. Costello III, G.J. Byers, (Duke Energy Corp.) [Barrett]
Evaluation of Risk on the Preventive Maintenance of Ulchin Units 3&4 During Power Operation
D.I. Kang, S.D. Kim, S.C. Jang, K.Y. Kim (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) [Han]
Risk-Informed Approach for In-Service Inspection (ISI)
T. Kumano, K. Sakata, M. Nagaya, F. Kono (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.) [Kumano]

Risk Assessment and Reliability-Based Design of Structural Systems
Y-G. Zhao (Nagoya Institute of Technology)

Tuesday (11/28) 9:00 - 10:30
The Stochastic Safety Factor - A Bridge between Deterministic and Probabilistic Structural Analysis
G. Maymon (RAFAEL R&D Organization) [Maymon]
Basic Risk Assessment Model for Reliability-Based Design of Structural System
S. Nakanishi (Osaka Institute of Technology), H. Nakayasu (Konan University) [Nakanishi]
A Simplified Method for Collapsing Behavior and Reliability Analysis of Marine Plate Structures
K. Masaoka, H. Okada (Osaka Prefecture University), Y. Murotsu (Osaka Prefecture College of Technology) [Masaoka]
Assessment of Seismic and Other External Risks in Dam Constructions
A. Vogel (Risk Assessment International) [Vogel]

Importance Measures
D.J. Wakefield(EQE International, Inc.)
H.P. Balfanz(TUV Nordhanstrasse)

Tuesday (11/28) 10:45 - 12:15
Importance Measures Computed in RISKMANR for Windows
D.J. Wakefield, Y. Xiong (EQE International, Inc.) [Wakefield]
New Insight on Measures of Importance of Components and Systems in Fault Tree Analysis
Y. Dutuit (Universite Bordeaux-1), O. Lemaire (EDF), A. Rauzy (Universite Bordeaux-1) [Dutuit]
Dynamic Characteristics of Importance Measures and Maintenance Strategy Reflecting Component Aging Effects
T.K. Kim, I.S. Kim (Hanyong University) [I.S. Kim]

Insight from Risk Studies 2
M.W. Golay(MIT)

Tuesday (11/28) 10:45 - 12:15
Perspectives on Low Power and Shutdown Risk
A.L. Camp, D.W. Whitehead, T.A. Wheeler (Sandia National Laboratories), J. Lehner, T.L. Chu (Brookhaven National Laboratory), E. Lois, M. Drouin (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission) [Camp]
Risk Analysis in Support of Improved Safety at US Department of Energy Hot Cell Facilities
F.A. Felder, M.W. Golay, (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), J. Phillips, T. Leahy (Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory) [Golay]
Insights from a Risk-Informed Standardized Technical Specifications Pilot Project at San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station
D.W. Henneke, T.G. Hook (Southern California Edison), T.A. Morgan (SCIENTECH, Inc.) [Morgan]

Environmetal Issues 2
E.J. Bonano (Beta Corporation International)

Tuesday (11/28) 10:45 - 12:15
Choice of Future Energy Resources: How much will photovoltaic generation systems cost to Japanese
T. Hashiba, S. Nishino (Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc.) [Hashiba]
A Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Emission Regulation on the Economic Operation of a Cogeneration Plant
J.C. Lin (EQE International) [Lin]
Ecological Insurance as Risk Management: Problems and Prospectives (Russia)
E. Kuijova (Russian Academy of Economics) [Kuijova]

Application of HRA
G.W. Parry (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission)
H.K. Lim (Chungbuk National Univ.)

Tuesday (11/28) 10:45 - 12:15
Human Reliability Analysis for a Spent Fuel Pool Risk Study
G.W. Parry (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission) [Parry]
An Expert Judgement Based Method for Human Reliability Analysis of Forsmark 1 and 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment
J.-E. Holmberg (SwedPower AB), P. Pyy (VTT Automation) [Pyy]
Human Reliability Analysis for Advanced Control Room of KNGR
M.R. Kim, S.K. Park (Korea Power Engineering Company, Inc.) [Park]
Comparison of HRA on Replacing Hazardous Substances in Semiconductor Plants
H.K. Lim (Chungbuk National University) [Lim]

S. Nagaoka (Electronic Navigation Research Institute)

Tuesday (11/28) 10:45 - 12:15
Further Developments in the Assessment of Risks around Airports
E.J. Smith, N.J. Cavanagh (Det Norske Veritas) [Cavanagh]
External Risk around Airports; a Model Update
A.J. Pikaar, M.A. Piers (National Aerospace Laboratory), B. Ale (National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM)) [Vercammen]
Safety around Airports: a Comparison of Three Computational Approaches
P.H.M. Janssen, B.J.M. Ale (National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM)) [Ale]
A Model of Third-Party Risk near Airports and Its Application to Public Safety Policy in the UK.
P.G. Cowell, D. Kent, P.B. Foot, S.M. Mason (National Air Traffic Services Ltd.,), A.W. Evans (University College London), R.J. Gerrard (City University) [Mason]

Risk Informed Applications for Operational Safety Management 2
D. True (ERIN)
S.H. Han (KAERI)

Tuesday (11/28) 10:45 - 12:15
Development and Implementation of a Novel Approach to Risk-Based Revision of Technical Specifications in Nuclear Power Plants
Z. Karsa, P. Siklossy (VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research) [Karsa]
Optimization of Allowed Outage Times and Test Intervals for the J.Bohunice V2 NPP
Z. Kovacs, P. Ciganik, P. Hlavac (RELKO Ltd,) [Kovacs]
Application of Living PSA Tool FT-FREE to Safety Management During Operation and Shutdown Nuclear Power Plant
K. Furuhashi, Y. Oyama, S. Tomizawa (Toden Software Inc.), H. Suzuki, N. Imamura (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries), K. Kawamata (Computer Software Development Corporation) [Tomizawa]
Development of the Safety Management Support System in Shutdown Period
M. Fujii, H. Muta (Toshiba Corporation), H. Saito, Y. Kato (Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc.) [Fujii]

Structural Reliability Assessment
J. Kanda (Univ. of Tokyo)
Tuesday (11/28) 10:45 - 12:15
Adaptive Importance Sampling Method with Response Surface Technique
S-H. Kim (Yonsei University), K-W. Ra (University of Illinois) [Kim]
A First Excursion Probability Estimation Method of Nonlinear Secondary System
S. Aoki (Tokyo Metropolitan College of Technology) [Aoki]
Structural Reliability Analysis Including Random Varibles with Unknown CDFs
Y-G. Zhao, T. Ono (Nagoya Institute of Technology) [Zhao]
An Improved Probabilistic Integration Method with High Accuracy
L. Zhang, W. Jin (Zhejiang University) [Zhang]

Risk Assessment in Gas & Oil Industries 1
Hideaki Takahashi (Mitsubishi Research Institute)

Tuesday (11/28) 14:00 - 15:30
A Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) Application for the Pilot LNG Storage Facility
H.T. Yim (United Pacific PLG, Inc.), Y.S. Sohn, S.H. Hong (Korea Gas Corporation R&D Center), Y.J. Kim (United Pacific PLG, Inc.) [Kim]
A Case Study on the Fire and Explosion of the LPG Filling Station
S.K. Pak, H.M. Kwon, H.S. Lee (Korea Occupatinal Safety & Health Agency) [Lee]
Reliability Analysis System for Risk Management of LNG Receiving Terminals
K. Koyama, K. Miura, T. Takehara (Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd.), K. Kawai, T. Ida (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.) [Koyama]

Methodology of Risk Management
C.H. Chung (Seoul National University)

Tuesday (11/28) 14:00 - 15:30
Optimizing Risk Management
G.W. Kindred (First Energy Nuclear Operating Company) [Kindred]
Integrated Logistic Support Studies Using Behavioral Monte Carlo Simulation, Supported by Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets
R. Garnier, M. Chevalier (Schneider Electric) [Garnier]
A Study of Warranty Models for Repairable Products
J.P. Jhang (Huafan University) [Jhang]
Development of Knowledge-based Safety Management System for Construction Works of Steel Bridges
A. Miyamoto (Yamaguchi University), H. Konishi (Japan Bridge Co., Ltd.), K. Moriyama (Yamaguchi University), M. Hirokane (Kansai University) [Moriyama]

Expert Judgement 1
M. Sakagami (NUPEC)
G. Cojazzi (JRC, EC)

Tuesday (11/28) 14:00 - 15:30
Lessons Learnt from the EC/USNRC Expert Judgement Study on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Codes Applied in the COSYMA Uncertainty Analysis
L.H.J. Goossens (Delft University of Technology), F.T. Harper (Sandia National Laboratories), J. Ehrhardt (Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe), J.A. Jones (National Radiological Protection Board), B.C.P. Kraan, R.M. Cooke (Delft University of Technology) [Goossens]
Expert Judgement of Uncertainties in Modelling Emergency Actions after Nuclear Accidents
L.H.J. Goossens (Delft University of Technology), J. Ehrhardt (Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe), B.C.P. Kraan, R.M. Cooke (Delft University of Technology) [Goossens]
The Process of Consulting Experts on the Reliability of the Equipment Challenged in Severe Accidents as part of a Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment
Y. Armand, C. Monchy-Leroy, J.M. Mattei (IPSN), Y. Dutuit (University of Bordeaux 1) B. Dumon, F. Guerin (University d'Angers) [Dutuit]
Expert Panel Approach for Supporting RI-ISI Evaluation
K.A. Simola, U. Pulkkinen (VTT Automation), J. Mononen, R. Virolainen (Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK)) [Simola]

HRA Method 1
A. Mosleh (University of Maryland)
H. Yoshikawa (Kyoto Univ.)

Tuesday (11/28) 14:00 - 15:30
Second Regeneration of HCR Correlation
G.I. Petkov (Technical University of Sophia), S.I. Petkov (Naval Marine Academy) [G.I. Petkov]
Human Model Simulation of Plant Anomaly Diagnosis (HUMOS-PAD) to Estimate Time Cognitive Reliability Curves for HRA/PSA Practice
W. Wu (MITSUBISHI Electric Corp.), H. Yoshikawa (Kyoto University), T. Nakagawa (MITSUBISHI Electric Corporation), A. Kameda, M. Fumizawa (Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC)) [Wu]
IDACrew: A Cognitive Model of Operating Crew Response to Complex System Accidents
Y.H. Chang, A. Mosleh (University of Maryland), S.H. Shen (Virginia Power) [Chang]
ADS-IDACrew: Dynamic Probabilistic Simulation of Operating Crew Response to Complex System Accidents
Y.H. Chang, A. Mosleh (University of Maryland) [Chang]

A.Roelen (National Aerospace Laboratory)
M.Ferrante (Alenia Aerospazio Divisione Spazio)

Tuesday (11/28) 14:00 - 15:30
Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Aerospace: Evolution from the Nuclear Industry
M.V. Frank (Safety Factor Associates, Inc.) [Frank]
A Dynamic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Intact Abort Scenarios
G. Maggio (SAIC), J.W. Railsback, R.P. Heydorn, F. Safie (NASA) [Maggio]
New Trends in Space Applications and Quality Management Future
M. Ferrante (Alenia Aerospazio Divisione Spazio), D. Herbin (Astrium S.A.S.,) [Ferrante]
Establishing a "Risk Management Culture" at the European Space Agency -ESA
C. Preyssl (European Space Agency) [Preyssl]

Market Risk and Insurance
R. Miura (Hitotsubashi Univ.)

Tuesday (11/28) 14:00 - 15:30
Dynamic Financial Analysis - A Probabilistic Basis for Comprehensive Risk Management
M. Stricker (Swiss Re) [Stricker]
Calculation of the Warranty Cost of Systems from the FMDES Analysis
J. de Reffye (Teuchos) [Reffye]

Stochastic Mechanics and Reliability 1
T. Fujita (Univ. of Tokyo)
G.I. Schueller (Leopold-Franzens University)

Tuesday (11/28) 14:00 - 15:30
Worst Case Estimation of Time-history Response Subject to Uncertain Excitation Bounded in Convex Set
M. Niki, N. Yoshikawa (University of Tokyo), S. Nakagiri (Yokohama National University) [Yoshikawa]
Sensitivity of Probability Distributions to Optimum Reliability for Building Structures
J. Kanda, T. Adachi (University of Tokyo) [Adachi]
Operator Split Technique Applied to Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
L. Duval, M. N. Noori (North Carolina State University), M. A. Savi (Instituto Militar de Engenharia) [Duval]
Optimization of Design of One Mass Dynamic Vibration Absorber with Stochastic System Parameters
P.E.J. Varpasuo (Fortum Engineering Ltd.) [Varpasuo]

Risk Assessment in Gas & Oil Industries 2
H. Takahashi (Mitsubishi Research Institute)

Tuesday (11/28) 16:00 - 17:30
Lessons Learned from RAMS of Pump Stations of a Pipeline System under the Circumstances of Uncertain Reliability Data
H.-P. Balfanz, J. Rumpf (TUV-Nord) [Balfanz]
Risk Assessment for a Natural Gas Liquids Recovery and Separation Plant
C. Turco (JGC Corporation), C.M. Roy (EQE International, Inc.) [Roy]

On-line Maintenance Application
D.E.True(ERIN Engineering and Research, Inc.)

Tuesday (11/28) 16:00 - 17:30
Probabilistic Maintenance Scheduling
A. Poncet (ABB Corporate Research) [Poncet]
How to Interpret Results of On-Line Risk Monitoring?
Z. Simic, V. Mikulicic, I. Vrbanic (University of Zagreb) [Simic]
Fire Risk and On-Line Risk Management
R.L. Durling, Jr. K.N. Fleming, D.E. True, K.L. Zee (ERIN Engineering and Research), H.A. Hackerott (Dmaha Public Power District)[Fleming]

Expert Judgement 2
P. Pyy (VTT Automation)

Tuesday (11/28) 16:00 - 17:30
Expert Judgement in the Assessment of the Contribution of Safety Management Aspects to the Control of Major Hazard Risk
A.R. Hale, L.H.J. Goossens (Delft University of Technology) [Hale]
Analysis of the BE-EJTs Results for the Prediction of a Fuel Coolant Interaction Experiment
G.G.M. Cojazzi, D. Fogli, G.F. Grassini (EC, Joint Research Centre) [Cojazzi]
Benchmarking Structured Expert Judgment Methodologies for the Assessment of Hydrogen Combustion in a Generic Evolutionary PWR
G.G.M. Cojazzi, D. Fogli, G.F. Grassini (EC, Joint Research Centre), I. M. Coe (NNC Limited) [Cojazzi]
Expert Opinion Elicitation Using A Bayesian Framework to Predict Gas Turbine Plant Availability
M.L. Xing, T.U. Marston (EQE International, Inc.), D.H. Johnson(EPRI) [Johnson]

HRA Method 2
J. Wreathall (John Wreathall Company)
T. Kohda (Kyoto Univ.)

Tuesday (11/28) 16:00 - 17:30
Team Performance Modeling in Dynamic Scenario for HRA
Y.F. Shu, K. Furuta, S. Kondo (University of Tokyo) [Shu]
Event Tree Methodology for Analyzing the Risk of Fatigue Errors During Flight
A. Knolll (Optimal Design Inc.), R. Golaszewski (GRA, Inc.), E. Knoll (Optimal Design Inc.) [A. Knoll, Golaszewski]
A Reliability Analysis of Man-Machine System (Holdup Tank System) by the GO-FLOW
H. Matsukura, N. Mitomo, T. Matsuoka (Ship Research Institute) [Matsukura]
Modelling Human Reliability in Air Traffic Management
J. Daams, H.A.P. Blom, H.B. Nijhuis (National Aerospace Laboratory NLR) [Blom]

System Reliability Analysis for Nuclear Systems
J. Baron (Universidad Nacional de Cuyo)

Tuesday (11/28) 16:00 - 17:30
Preparation of Scram Fault Tree for BWR Plants and Evaluation of Its Appropriateness
Y. Goto (Tokyo Electric Power Company), Y. Ohyama (Toden Software Inc.), M. Iino (Toshiba Corporation) [Ohyama]
The Computation of the Exact Hazard Rate of a Plant Equipped with a Two-channel Protective System
C. Kara-Zaitri (University of Bradford) [Kara-Zaitri]
Failure Probability of the Shut-down Function Performed by Control Rods (PWR) in Case of Various Initiating Events
H. Schaefer (Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH) [Schaefer]
Development of FT Linking ET Analysis Method
K. Furuhashi, Y. Ohyama, E. Doi, S. Tomizawa, K. Sakuramoto (Toden Software Inc.) [Sakuramoto]

Stochastic Mechanics and Reliability 2
G.I. Schueller (Leopold-Franzens University)
T. Takada (University of Tokyo)

Tuesday (11/28) 16:00 - 17:30
Recent Software Development for Structural Reliability Assessment
G.I. Schueller (University of Innsbruck) [Schueller]
Hypersphere Division Method for Reliability Assessment of Structures with Non-Normal Distributions
M. Yonezawa, Y.T. Park (Kinki University) [Park]
Lifetime Reliability Assessment of Transmission Pipeline under Seismic Hazard
T. Koike (Kawasaki Steel Corporation) [Koike]